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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Mahomes is Under 20.5 on Rushing Yards.
On the Rushing Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 69%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +16.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
NFL

Patrick Mahomes

KC

+16.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards Under 20.5 -112 (1.89)
+16.3% Edge
Washington Commanders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City · Indoor
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Mahomes (knee) continues to aim to be ready for the Chiefs' regular-season opener against the Broncos on Monday, Sept. 14, Kevin Patra of NFL.com reports.
updated Jul 15, 7:39PM UTC · 5d old
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Model Probability
69.2%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+16.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards69.2%—52.9%1.45+16.3%

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AI Analysis

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Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Statistical reasoning favors betting on the 'Under' for Patrick Mahomes' rushing yards in the upcoming game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Washington Commanders. Mahomes' recent performance portrays a clear trend - he's consistently not reaching the mark of 20.5 rushing yards. Over his last 5 games, both overall and at home, he failed to hit this target. Moreover, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero. Looking at a broader picture, Mahomes' overall hit rate is 24 out of 66, indicating he only surpasses 20.5 rushing yards in about 36% of his games. At home, the hit rate is even lower, only about 29% (10 out of 35). Furthermore, the model indicates a 16.25% edge in favor of the 'Under'. This data-driven evidence suggests Mahomes is statistically unlikely to exceed 20.5 rushing yards in the upcoming match.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards2 lines trackedNo line posted
20.5typical line · rushing yds
line range20.5–21.5tips tracked2

Patrick Mahomes's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 20.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Patrick Mahomes (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Mahomes is Under 20.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.3% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Kansas City Chiefs at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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