Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Mahomes is Under 15.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 57 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 57%, the price says 52%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 6:01AM UTC
NFL
Patrick Mahomes
KC
Patrick Mahomes has one live pick today: Rushing Yards Under 15.5 that pays $193 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards
Under 15.5
-108 (1.93) · $100→$193
Value call
Indianapolis Colts
@
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City · Indoor
Mon 21 Sep, 12:20AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Mahomes completed 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding seven rushes for 23 yards and another score in the Chiefs' 31-10 win over the Broncos on Monday night. He also recovered two fumbles.
updated Sep 15, 4:12AM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
How often this wins
57 in 100
Predicted
12.9 Rushing Yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 56.9% · before adjusting for past results 70.9% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +5.1%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards | 70.9% | 56.9% | 51.8% | 2.04 | +19.1% |
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Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Kansas City Chiefs play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Monday 21 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Patrick Mahomes's lines for Mon 21 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Rushing Yards 15.5
-120 best over price · 4 books
Patrick Mahomes's rushing yards line is 15.5, best over price -120 across 4 books.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Patrick Mahomes's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Rushing Yards 16.5
-120 best over price · 4 books
Patrick Mahomes's rushing yards line is 16.5, best over price -120 across 4 books.
Interceptions Thrown 0.5
Patrick Mahomes's interceptions thrown line is 0.5.
Rushing Attempts 3.5
Patrick Mahomes's rushing attempts line is 3.5.
Betting angles
Markets & formRushing Yards94 lines trackedNo line posted 29.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–59.5model over36%tips tracked94
Patrick Mahomes's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 94 times, typically around a 29.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD14 lines trackedNo line posted
24%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked14
Patrick Mahomes's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 14 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 24%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Passing Yards85 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–233.5model over97%tips tracked85
Patrick Mahomes's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 85 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
19.5 |
Over |
+155 |
✓ HIT |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
149.5 |
Over |
-667 |
✓ HIT |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
124.5 |
Over |
-5000 |
✓ HIT |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Total Touchdowns |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
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Patrick Mahomes (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Mahomes is Under 15.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.1% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs on Monday 21 September at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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