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NFL

Patrick Mahomes

KC

Value call

Patrick Mahomes has one live pick today: over 174.5 passing yards that pays $130 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
221.0 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 89.1% · before adjusting for past results 92.8% · the book's price implies 76.9% · gap +12.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Seattle · Indoor
Sun 25 Oct, 8:20 PM ET
Patrick Mahomes
over 174.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 174.5 -333 (1.30) · $100→$130
Value call
HIGHWins about 89 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.00 Odds-333
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Mahomes is Over 174.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 89%, the price says 77%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 3:55AM UTC
UNKNOWN
Mahomes completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He added two rushing attempts for 14 yards.
updated Oct 26, 3:55AM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)92.8%89.1%76.9%1.30+15.9%

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AI Analysis

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Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes Over 174.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-345)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Betting on Patrick Mahomes to throw over 174.5 passing yards looks promising. Our numbers see him as a strong favorite to achieve this, especially with the Chiefs' strong offensive game. Mahomes has been playing well and has a solid connection with his receivers, which makes it likely he'll get those yards against the Seahawks. However, the Seahawks' defense can be tough, and they've shown they can hold down quarterbacks at times. Still, with Mahomes' talent and the Chiefs' offensive rhythm, it feels good to back him on this bet. Just remember, even the best players can have an off day.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards99 lines trackedNo line posted
29.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–59.5model over36%tips tracked99

Patrick Mahomes's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 99 times, typically around a 29.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD14 lines trackedNo line posted
24%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked14

Patrick Mahomes's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 14 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 24%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards282 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–259.5model over98%tips tracked282

Patrick Mahomes's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 282 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Patrick Mahomes average?How many rushing yards does Patrick Mahomes average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) 159.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks Rushing Attempts 3.5 Under -139 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Patrick Mahomes (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Mahomes is Over 174.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.9% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks on Sunday 25 October at Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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