Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
NFL

Patrick Mahomes

KC

Value call

Patrick Mahomes has one live pick today: under 15.5 rushing yards that pays $193 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
57 in 100
Predicted
14.2 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 56.8% · before adjusting for past results 67.9% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +4.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 4:25 PM ET
Patrick Mahomes
under 15.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards Under 15.5 -108 (1.93) · $100→$193
Value call
LEANWins about 57 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.30 Odds-108
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Mahomes is Under 15.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 57 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 57%, the price says 52%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 9:39PM UTC
UNKNOWN
Mahomes completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders. He also rushed twice for no gain.
updated Oct 5, 12:49AM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards67.9%56.8%51.8%2.04+16.1%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Las Vegas Raiders play Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards98 lines trackedNo line posted
29.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–59.5model over36%tips tracked98

Patrick Mahomes's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 98 times, typically around a 29.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD14 lines trackedNo line posted
24%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked14

Patrick Mahomes's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 14 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 24%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards138 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–241.5model over98%tips tracked138

Patrick Mahomes's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 138 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Patrick Mahomes average?How many rushing yards does Patrick Mahomes average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Rushing Yards 15.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Patrick Mahomes (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Mahomes is Under 15.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.1% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 4 October at Las Vegas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.