Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Jones is Over 49.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 24 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 24%, the price says 22%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:03PM UTC
NFL
Aaron Jones
MIN
Aaron Jones has one live pick today: Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 49.5 that pays $458 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt)
Over 49.5
+358 (4.58) · $100→$458
Value call
Green Bay Packers
@
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Jones (undisclosed) won't participate in Wednesday's practice, Alec Lewis of The Athletic reports.
updated Sep 23, 6:41PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
24 in 100
Predicted
40.0 Rushing Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 24.4% · before adjusting for past results 24.4% · the book's price implies 21.8% · gap +2.5%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards (Alt) | 24.4% | 24.4% | 21.8% | 4.58 | +2.5% |
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Aaron Jones (MIN) Over 49.5 Player rush yds alternate (+358)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Minnesota Vikings play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Aaron Jones (MIN) Over 49.5 Player rush yds alternate. It was priced at +358 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $45.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Overall Hit Rate (22 picks)
86.4%
Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD13 lines trackedNo line posted
47%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked13
Aaron Jones's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 13 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 47%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards13 lines trackedNo line posted 14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range13.5–15.5tips tracked13
Aaron Jones's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 13 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Rushing Yards66 lines trackedNo line posted 9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–49.5model over99%tips tracked66
Aaron Jones's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 66 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions9 lines trackedNo line posted 2.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–2.5tips tracked9
Aaron Jones's NFL receptions prop has been priced 9 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
49.5 |
Over |
+358 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
39.5 |
Over |
+193 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
19.5 |
Over |
-278 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Attempts |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rush + Rec Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Aaron Jones (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 86.4% on tracked Aaron Jones picks. The latest model pick for Aaron Jones is Over 49.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +2.5% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings on Sunday 13 September at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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