Aaron Jones has one live pick today: over 7.5 rushing attempts that pays $124 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
98 in 100
Predicted
16.8 rushing attempts
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 98.4% · the book's price implies 80.7% · gap +18.7%.
Latest Model PickFree
Indianapolis Colts
@
Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones
over 7.5 rushing attempts
Rushing Attempts (Alt)
Over 7.5
-417 (1.24) · $100→$124
Value call
HIGHWins about 98 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$12.40
Odds-417
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Jones is Over 7.5 on Rushing Attempts (Alt).
On Rushing Attempts (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 98 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 98%, the price says 81%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 23, 5:29PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Is Aaron Jones playing on Sunday? Yes, on the latest team news. Aaron Jones is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
UNKNOWN
Jones rushed 25 times for 113 yards and a touchdown and brought in all three targets for four yards in the Vikings' 23-13 win over the Saints on Sunday.
updated Oct 11, 9:26PM UTC · 11d old
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Attempts (Alt) | 98.4% | — | 80.7% | 1.24 | +18.7% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Aaron Jones (MIN) Over 7.5 Player rush attempts alternate (-417)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Minnesota Vikings play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday 25 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Aaron Jones (MIN) Over 7.5 Player rush attempts alternate. It was priced at -417 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Aaron Jones's lines for Sun 25 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Rushing Attempts (Alt) 7.5
Aaron Jones's rushing attempts (alt) line is 7.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 79.5
Aaron Jones's rushing yards (alt) line is 79.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 19.5
Aaron Jones's rushing yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Rushing Attempts (Alt) 19.5
Aaron Jones's rushing attempts (alt) line is 19.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 14.5
Aaron Jones's rushing yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Receiving Yards 14.5
-114 best over price · 7 books
Aaron Jones's receiving yards line is 14.5, best over price -114 across 7 books.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 89.5
Aaron Jones's rushing yards (alt) line is 89.5.
Rushing Attempts (Alt) 5.5
Aaron Jones's rushing attempts (alt) line is 5.5.
Betting angles
3 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · Indianapolis ColtsU 14.5 -106 14.5posted line · receiving yds
Aaron Jones has a live NFL receiving yards market for Indianapolis Colts: under 14.5 receiving yds priced at -106.
Rushing YardsNext game · Indianapolis ColtsO 79.5 +482 79.5posted line · rushing yds
Aaron Jones has a live NFL rushing yards market for Indianapolis Colts: over 79.5 rushing yds priced at +482.
Anytime TDNext game · Indianapolis ColtsAnytime TD +140
Aaron Jones has a live NFL anytime td market for Indianapolis Colts priced at +140.
Receptions15 lines trackedNo line posted 2.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–3.5tips tracked15
Aaron Jones's NFL receptions prop has been priced 15 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 11 Oct 26 |
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
59.5 |
Over |
-200 |
✓ HIT |
| 11 Oct 26 |
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints |
Receiving Yards |
19.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 11 Oct 26 |
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
49.5 |
Over |
-357 |
✓ HIT |
| 11 Oct 26 |
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 11 Oct 26 |
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 11 Oct 26 |
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Aaron Jones (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Jones is Over 7.5 on Rushing Attempts (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings on Sunday 25 October at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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