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The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Jones is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer.
On the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market the model assigns a model win probability of 50%, versus the book's implied 36%, for a model edge of +13.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
NFL

Aaron Jones

MIN

+13.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Yes +175 (2.75)
+13.8% Edge
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Ahead of training camp, Jones is set to reclaim a key role in a Minnesota backfield that also includes Jordan Mason and rookie sixth-rounder Demond Claiborne, Alec Lewis of The Athletic reports.
updated Jun 24, 1:26AM UTC · 27d old
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Model Probability
50.2%
Implied Probability
36.4%
Model Edge
+13.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime Touchdown Scorer50.2%—36.4%1.99+13.8%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Jones (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Aaron Jones to score a touchdown at any time during the Vikings vs Ravens game carries a degree of risk, given his recent performance and hit rates. Looking at Jones' overall hit rate, he has scored in just 14 of his last 52 games, indicating a less than 27% success rate. Even when considering his performance at home, his hit rate is only 9 out of 25, or 36%. Furthermore, Jones has been on a dry spell recently, with no touchdowns scored in his last 5 games overall, and none in his last 3 home games. His home hit rate over the last 10 games is 50% (5/10), which is encouraging but not consistent. Based on these statistics, betting on Jones to score a touchdown in this game seems less predictable, pointing towards a potential higher-risk bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD4 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked4

Aaron Jones's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 4 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards1 line trackedNo line posted
15.5typical line · receiving yds
tips tracked1

Aaron Jones's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 15.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Aaron Jones (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Jones is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.8% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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