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NFL

Aaron Jones

MIN

Value call

Aaron Jones has one live pick today: over 69.5 rushing yards that pays $870 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
25 in 100
Predicted
61.6 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 25.1% · before adjusting for past results 29.6% · the book's price implies 11.5% · gap +13.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
Mon 9 Nov, 8:15 PM ET
Aaron Jones
over 69.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 69.5 +770 (8.70) · $100→$870
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 25 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$87.00 Odds+770
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Jones is Over 69.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 25 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 25%, the price says 11%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 13, 12:42AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Jones rushed five times for 16 yards and brought in his only target for five yards in the Vikings' 23-6 loss to the Bills on Monday night.
updated Nov 10, 5:28AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)29.6%25.1%11.5%8.70+18.1%

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AI Analysis

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Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills: Aaron Jones Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (Alt) (+770)

Odds correct at time of publishing

You can get good odds on Aaron Jones rushing over 69.5 yards, and that's worth a look. He was the main guy for carries last season, taking more than half of them for Minnesota. While both teams are strong, the Vikings struggled more against running plays, which could help Jones rack up yards. The risk here is that he might not get as many chances if the game turns into a passing battle. But with the Vikings' defense giving up more on the ground, Jones has a solid shot to make it happen. Let's see if he can break loose!

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD20 lines trackedNo line posted
45%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked20

Aaron Jones's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 20 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 45%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards62 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–69.5model over36%tips tracked62

Aaron Jones's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 62 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards144 lines trackedNo line posted
39.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–89.5model over66%tips tracked144

Aaron Jones's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 144 times, typically around a 39.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions38 lines trackedNo line posted
2.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–5.5model over43%tips tracked38

Aaron Jones's NFL receptions prop has been priced 38 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many rushing yards does Aaron Jones average?How many receiving yards does Aaron Jones average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Rushing Yards (Alt) 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Rushing Yards (Alt) 9.5 Over -1429 ✓ HIT
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards 9.5 Under -105 ✓ HIT
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Rushing Attempts (Alt) — — — Pending
09 Nov 26 Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Jones (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Jones is Over 69.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.1% on this pick. Their next game is Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings on Monday 9 November at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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