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The latest Bet Better model pick for John Bates is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On the Receiving Yards (Alt) market the model assigns a model win probability of 42%, versus the book's implied 41%, for a model edge of +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:20PM UTC
NFL

John Bates

WAS

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 +144 (2.44) · $100→$244
+1.5% Edge
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Washington · Indoor
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Bates will miss "a couple of weeks" due to a hamstring injury, Ben Standig of Big 100 Washington D.C. reports.
updated Aug 2, 12:55AM UTC · 8d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
42.4%
Implied Probability
41.0%
Model Edge
+1.5%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)42.4%—41.0%2.36+1.5%

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AI Analysis

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John Bates (WAS) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+144)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Analyzing the provided data, the bet on John Bates for over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market does not seem favorable. Bates has a poor overall hit rate of 11/43. His performance at home is not promising either, with a hit rate of 6/20. Bates' recent performance is particularly concerning, as he has not hit the over in his last 5 overall games or his last 5 home games. Additionally, his current hit streak in all categories is zero, indicating a recent underperformance. Although Bates has had some success against the Philadelphia Eagles, with a hit rate of 2/5, his performance at home against this team is less impressive at 1/3. The model edge of 0.0145 indicates a very slight advantage, but given Bates' recent performance and hit rates, this bet carries significant risk.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards4 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–29.5model over42%tips tracked4

John Bates's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked2

John Bates's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

John Bates (WAS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for John Bates is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders at Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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