Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for John Bates is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On the Receiving Yards (Alt) market the model assigns a model win probability of 42%, versus the book's implied 41%, for a model edge of +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
NFL

John Bates

WAS

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 +144 (2.44)
+1.5% Edge
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Washington · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
42.4%
Implied Probability
41.0%
Model Edge
+1.5%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)42.4%—41.0%2.36+1.5%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

John Bates (WAS) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+144)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Analyzing the provided data, the bet on John Bates for over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market does not seem favorable. Bates has a poor overall hit rate of 11/43. His performance at home is not promising either, with a hit rate of 6/20. Bates' recent performance is particularly concerning, as he has not hit the over in his last 5 overall games or his last 5 home games. Additionally, his current hit streak in all categories is zero, indicating a recent underperformance. Although Bates has had some success against the Philadelphia Eagles, with a hit rate of 2/5, his performance at home against this team is less impressive at 1/3. The model edge of 0.0145 indicates a very slight advantage, but given Bates' recent performance and hit rates, this bet carries significant risk.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards4 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–29.5model over42%tips tracked4

John Bates's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked2

John Bates's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

John Bates (WAS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for John Bates is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders at Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks