Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ashton Jeanty is Yes on Anytime TD.
On Anytime TD, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 55%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 29, 7:22AM UTC
NFL
Ashton Jeanty
LV
Ashton Jeanty has one live pick today: Anytime TD Yes that pays $187 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Anytime TD
Yes
-115 (1.87) · $100→$187
Value call
Kansas City Chiefs
@
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 491 of 840 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Jeanty carried the ball 19 times for 56 yards and caught all three of his targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 35-27 win over the Saints.
updated Sep 28, 12:39AM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
55 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 55.5% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +2.0%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Anytime TD | 55.5% | — | 53.5% | 1.87 | +2.0% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
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Ashton Jeanty (LV) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Las Vegas Raiders play Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Ashton Jeanty (LV) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Overall Hit Rate (23 picks)
78.3%
Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
Ashton Jeanty's lines for Sun 4 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Anytime TD
-115 best over price · 9 books
Ashton Jeanty's anytime td line is posted, best over price -115 across 9 books.
Betting angles
1 market liveAnytime TDNext game · Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas RaidersAnytime TD -115
Ashton Jeanty has a live NFL anytime td market for Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders priced at -115.
Receptions21 lines trackedNo line posted 3.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–6.5model over58%tips tracked21
Ashton Jeanty's NFL receptions prop has been priced 21 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards40 lines trackedNo line posted 17.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–59.5model over56%tips tracked40
Ashton Jeanty's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 40 times, typically around a 17.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Rushing Yards16 lines trackedNo line posted 24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range19.5–60.5model over98%tips tracked16
Ashton Jeanty's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 16 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
19.5 |
Over |
-2000 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Rushing Yards |
59.5 |
Under |
-111 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Rushing Yards |
58.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Rush + Rec Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
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Ashton Jeanty (LV) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 78.3% on tracked Ashton Jeanty picks. The latest model pick for Ashton Jeanty is Yes on Anytime TD. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 4 October at Las Vegas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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