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NFL

Antonio Williams

WAS

Value call

Antonio Williams has one live pick today: under 23.5 receiving yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
48 in 100
Predicted
25.8 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 47.8% · before adjusting for past results 57.7% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap -5.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco · Indoor
Mon 19 Oct, 8:15 PM ET
Antonio Williams
under 23.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards Under 23.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
LEANWins about 48 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Antonio Williams is Under 23.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 48 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 48%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 25, 1:14PM UTC
UNKNOWN
Williams brought in three of four targets for 50 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night.
updated Oct 20, 4:26AM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards57.7%47.8%53.2%2.00+4.5%

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AI Analysis

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San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders: Antonio Williams Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The San Francisco 49ers are tough on defense, especially against tight ends, allowing a lot of touchdowns last season. They gave up 0.6 touchdowns per game to tight ends, which is more than most teams. On the other hand, the Washington Commanders have struggled to protect their quarterback, and he faced extra rushers more often than average. With Antonio Williams, the number of receiving yards he can rack up looks shaky against the 49ers' strong defense. Our numbers say this bet is close to a coin flip. The biggest risk is that both teams are pretty equal in terms of performance, but with the 49ers' tight-end defense being a real concern, taking the under on 23.5 yards seems like a smart choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards23 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–69.5model over62%tips tracked23

Antonio Williams's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 23 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions15 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–4.5model over66%tips tracked15

Antonio Williams's NFL receptions prop has been priced 15 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD5 lines trackedNo line posted
20%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked5

Antonio Williams's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 5 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 20%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 New York Giants @ Washington Commanders Receptions 3.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 New York Giants @ Washington Commanders Receiving Yards 36.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders Receptions (Alt) 2.5 Over +205 ✓ HIT
19 Oct 26 Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers Receiving Yards — — — Pending
19 Oct 26 Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers Receiving Yards — — — Pending
19 Oct 26 Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers Receptions — — — Pending

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About This Player

Antonio Williams (WAS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Antonio Williams is Under 23.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers on Monday 19 October at San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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