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NFL

Emmett Johnson

KC

Value call

Emmett Johnson has one live pick today: over 14.5 rushing yards that pays $361 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
33 in 100
Predicted
16.6 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 32.5% · before adjusting for past results 41.9% · the book's price implies 27.7% · gap +4.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Denver · Indoor
Sun 1 Nov, 4:25 PM ET
Emmett Johnson
over 14.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 +261 (3.61) · $100→$361
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 33 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$36.10 Odds+261
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Emmett Johnson is Over 14.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 33 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 33%, the price says 28%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 4, 4:38PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$14,174 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Johnson carried the ball once for 15 yards and caught all five of his targets for 128 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-24 loss to the Broncos. He added 44 yards on his only kickoff return.
updated Nov 2, 2:34AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)41.9%32.5%27.7%3.61+14.2%

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AI Analysis

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Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs: Emmett Johnson Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (Alt) (+261)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Emmett Johnson has a good chance to go over 14.5 rushing yards against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos have been leaning more on their passing game, but when they do run, they need to keep the defense honest. Johnson can find some space, especially since the Chiefs' defense has struggled at times against the run. While Johnson has a solid shot, he might not get a ton of carries since the Broncos often throw the ball. Plus, both teams have faced extra rushers on their dropbacks, but the Chiefs have been slightly better at handling that pressure. It's a bit of a risk, but at the odds offered, it's worth a look.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards56 lines trackedNo line posted
49.5typical line · receiving yds
line range6.5–69.5model over9%tips tracked56

Emmett Johnson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 56 times, typically around a 49.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards147 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–49.5model over54%tips tracked147

Emmett Johnson's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 147 times, typically around a 14.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD17 lines trackedNo line posted
17%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked17

Emmett Johnson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 17 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 17%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions30 lines trackedNo line posted
2.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–4.5model over22%tips tracked30

Emmett Johnson's NFL receptions prop has been priced 30 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Nov 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Rushing Yards (Alt) 14.5 Over +261 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Rushing Yards (Alt) 9.5 Over +126 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Rushing Yards 7.5 Over -114 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Emmett Johnson (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Emmett Johnson is Over 14.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.2% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos on Sunday 1 November at Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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