Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Emmett Johnson is Over 17.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 43 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 43%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 9:50PM UTC
NFL
Emmett Johnson
KC
Emmett Johnson has one live pick today: Rushing Yards Over 17.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards
Over 17.5
-114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
Indianapolis Colts
@
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City · Indoor
Mon 21 Sep, 12:20AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Johnson rushed eight times for 24 yards in the Chiefs' 31-10 win over the Broncos on Monday night. He added two catches for 44 yards on two targets.
updated Sep 15, 7:18PM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
43 in 100
Predicted
23.3 Rushing Yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 43.0% · before adjusting for past results 57.2% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap -10.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards | 57.2% | 43.0% | 53.2% | 2.00 | +4.0% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime
Emmett Johnson (KC) Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Kansas City Chiefs play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Monday 21 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Emmett Johnson (KC) Over 17.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Emmett Johnson's lines for Mon 21 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Rushing Yards 17.5
-109 best over price · 7 books
Emmett Johnson's rushing yards line is 17.5, best over price -109 across 7 books.
Rushing Yards 16.5
-120 best over price · 3 books
Emmett Johnson's rushing yards line is 16.5, best over price -120 across 3 books.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Emmett Johnson's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Anytime TD
+525 best over price · 14 books
Emmett Johnson's anytime td line is posted, best over price +525 across 14 books.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 24.5
Emmett Johnson's rushing yards (alt) line is 24.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 19.5
Emmett Johnson's rushing yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 14.5
Emmett Johnson's rushing yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 9.5
Emmett Johnson's rushing yards (alt) line is 9.5.
Betting angles
2 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City ChiefsO 39.5 +1020 39.5posted line · receiving yds
Emmett Johnson has a live NFL receiving yards market for Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs: over 39.5 receiving yds priced at +1020.
Rushing YardsNext game · Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City ChiefsO 9.5 -286 9.5posted line · rushing yds
Emmett Johnson has a live NFL rushing yards market for Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs: over 9.5 rushing yds priced at -286.
Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
22%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1
Emmett Johnson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 22%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
See the complete track record
Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.
Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime
Emmett Johnson (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Emmett Johnson is Over 17.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs on Monday 21 September at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.