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Jayden Daniels

WAS

Value call

Jayden Daniels has one live pick today: over 169.5 passing yards that pays $138 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
215.3 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 79.0% · before adjusting for past results 92.4% · the book's price implies 72.5% · gap +6.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
New York · Indoor
Thu 12 Nov, 8:15 PM ET
Jayden Daniels
over 169.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 169.5 -263 (1.38) · $100→$138
Value call
HIGHWins about 79 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.80 Odds-263
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jayden Daniels is Over 169.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 79%, the price says 72%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:04PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Daniels completed 23 of 33 passes for 249 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions and rushed 11 times for 28 yards in the Commanders' 24-21 win over the Giants on Thursday.
updated Nov 13, 4:56AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)92.4%79.0%72.5%1.38+20.0%

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AI Analysis

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New York Giants vs Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels Over 169.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-263)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The New York Giants are set to face the Washington Commanders at home, and Jayden Daniels has been showing some solid form lately. With the Giants' defense struggling to contain passing plays, it looks likely that Daniels will have plenty of opportunities to rack up yards. Our numbers rate this as a strong pick, suggesting he should easily surpass 169.5 passing yards. However, one thing to watch is how close these teams are in overall performance. The Commanders can sometimes surprise, which could make this a tougher matchup than expected. Still, given Daniels' recent play and the Giants' defensive issues, this bet feels like a good choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)
Overall Hit Rate (23 picks) 95.7% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD6 lines trackedNo line posted
37%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked6

Jayden Daniels's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 6 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 37%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards156 lines trackedNo line posted
124.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–259.5model over99%tips tracked156

Jayden Daniels's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 156 times, typically around a 124.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards90 lines trackedNo line posted
9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–39.5model over98%tips tracked90

Jayden Daniels's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 90 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Jayden Daniels average?How many rushing yards does Jayden Daniels average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards (Alt) 169.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jayden Daniels (WAS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 95.7% on tracked Jayden Daniels picks. The latest model pick for Jayden Daniels is Over 169.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.0% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs New York Giants on Thursday 12 November at New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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