Data window: 29 Jun – 2 Aug 2026 (4.27M odds observations)
· Papers published Aug 2026 · Page reviewed Aug 2026
Original studies and open data on the price and behaviour of betting markets.
Everything here is free to quote, chart and build on under
CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
Most of what circulates about sports betting is opinion. These pages are measurements:
millions of recorded odds turned into open, verifiable numbers — how much the bookmaker
charges, how honest the odds are, and how prices move. Journalists and researchers use them;
you're welcome to as well.
4.78%
The price of a bet, measured across 205,491 markets and 52 bookmakers — including
the first public measurement of player-prop margins (7.93%).
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20.8%
Why sportsbooks keep twice the quoted margin: parlays compound leg margins — a
5-leg multi of ordinary legs has a built-in 20.8% hold. Home of the quarterly
Bet Better Margin Index.
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47.4%
97 games, weeks 1 to 7: home teams were priced to win 54.6% of the time and won 47.4%, only 42.1% in October.
Every week and the nine big upsets.
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57.1%
133 games from opening night: home teams were priced to win 52.2% of the time and won 57.1%. Home favourites won 66 in 100.
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110 of 117
363 games: teams priced at 80% or more won 110 of 117, more than their odds said. Home teams won 61.7% against a 58.3% price.
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42.5%
5,897 games over five seasons: teams on the second night of a back-to-back won 42.5% against a rested side. The odds expected 43.6%.
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42.6%
2,163 games: the underdog won 42.6% of the time. No team was priced higher than 78.4% all season.
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19 of 256
1,722 matches: men priced at 80% or more at the Grand Slams lost 19 of 256, when the odds allowed for about 31.
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70.5%
1,777 matches: favourites were priced to win 69.6% and won 70.5%. Big Grand Slam favourites lost 26 of 236.
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70.1%
1,496 fights since 2023: favourites won 70.1% against a 67.0% price. Fighters priced 70-80% won 80.5%.
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126-126
921 games since mid-2022: favourites priced 50-60% won 126 and lost 126. Home underdogs won 37.9% against a 34.3% price.
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52 of 53
212 games: teams priced at 80% or more won 52 of 53. Home teams won 58.5% against a 54.8% price.
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+7.4
353 games: the Washington Mystics won 29 when the odds added up to 21.6. Every team against its price.
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31.9%
430 matches: 58 of 182 MLS games ended level when the odds priced a draw at 23.6%. Europe's top five leagues for comparison.
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66.1%
949 games in 2024-25: home teams won 66.1% against a 62.2% price. Big favourites won 241 of 255.
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58.8%
424 matches: ODI favourites won 58.8% against a 65.0% price; T20 favourites won 70.1%. Toss winners won 55.9%.
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54.3%
1,018 T20 games, 2019 to 2026: the side batting second won 54.3%, three in four toss winners fielded, and IPL first innings rose from 168 to 196.
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40.3
997 open-air games: 40.3 points at 15 mph of wind or more, 44.7 in calmer air. The closing total fell about 1. Cold alone did almost nothing.
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75-150
226 games without the starting quarterback, 2021 to 2024: 75 wins, 150 losses. The margin fell about 3 points and the closing spread moved about 3.
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+0.5
100,476 player games, 2018-19 to 2024-25: guards score about half a point more against the five easiest defenses. For guards, the rank takes over 100 games to settle.
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±2 pts
18,238 settled markets: vig-free odds are calibrated within ~2 points everywhere —
with a small tilt: longshots come in slightly more often than priced.
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Daily
What a bet actually costs, measured every day across head-to-head, handicap, totals
and player-prop markets. Open CSV, CC BY 4.0.
See today’s index →
2.76 pts
11.7 million snapshots: UFC lines move 2.76 points, MLB 0.60 — and price discovery
happens 1–7 days out, not in the final hours.
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$31.5B
What Australians actually lose, per adult and per state — the official QGSO numbers,
explained plainly.
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2.1%
How much taking the best available price is worth — measured across books, the one
improvement every bettor controls.
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−10.7 pts
630 wet games, 2008–2023: rain takes 10.7 points off a game and compresses margins
by 4.4 — and the modern game has halved the rain penalty.
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The data behind the studies, published as citable, DOI-registered datasets. No odds, prices or
bookmaker identities are redistributed — aggregates only.
Cite any page or dataset with attribution to Bet Better and a link. If you're a journalist or
researcher and need a custom cut of the data, email
press@betbetter.world — turnaround is usually
same-day.