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NFL

Jake Ferguson

DAL

Value call

Jake Ferguson has one live pick today: under 3.5 receptions that pays $189 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
51 in 100
Predicted
3.1 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 50.7% · before adjusting for past results 62.2% · the book's price implies 52.9% · gap -2.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
Thu 8 Oct, 8:15 PM ET
Jake Ferguson
under 3.5 receptions
Receptions Under 3.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
Value call
LEANWins about 51 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.90 Odds-112
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Ferguson is Under 3.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 51 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 51%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 7:02PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Ferguson brought in three of six targets for 19 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
updated Oct 9, 4:55AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions62.2%50.7%52.9%2.02+9.3%

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AI Analysis

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Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jake Ferguson Under 3.5 Receptions (-112)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Jake Ferguson needs to have fewer than 4 catches for this bet to win. The Dallas Cowboys are facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Tampa's defense is known for being tough against tight ends. With a solid pass rush, they can pressure the quarterback, making it harder to throw the ball to Ferguson. Our numbers say there's a good chance this will happen. Plus, while Ferguson has potential, he hasn't been the main target lately, so he might not see many passes coming his way. The risk is that if the Cowboys get behind and need to throw a lot, Ferguson could get more opportunities to catch the ball.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD7 lines trackedNo line posted
47%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked7

Jake Ferguson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 7 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 47%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards130 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–69.5model over65%tips tracked130

Jake Ferguson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 130 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions12 lines trackedNo line posted
3.5typical line · receptions
line range3.5–3.5tips tracked12

Jake Ferguson's NFL receptions prop has been priced 12 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Jake Ferguson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receptions 3.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receiving Yards (Alt) 9.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receiving Yards — — — Pending
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jake Ferguson (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Ferguson is Under 3.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.3% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys on Thursday 8 October at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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