Jake Ferguson has one live pick today: over 39.5 receiving yards that pays $572 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
37 in 100
Predicted
36.7 receiving yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 37.4% · the book's price implies 17.5% · gap +19.9%.
Latest Model PickFree
Arizona Cardinals
@
Dallas Cowboys
Jake Ferguson
over 39.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 39.5
+472 (5.72) · $100→$572
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 37 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$57.20
Odds+472
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Ferguson is Over 39.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 37 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 37%, the price says 17%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 10:44PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Is Jake Ferguson playing tomorrow? Yes, on the latest team news. Jake Ferguson is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
UNKNOWN
Ferguson failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles.
updated Oct 27, 11:34PM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 37.4% | — | 17.5% | 5.72 | +19.9% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Jake Ferguson (DAL) Over 39.5 Player reception yds alternate (+472)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Dallas Cowboys play Arizona Cardinals in the NFL on Sunday 1 November 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jake Ferguson (DAL) Over 39.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at +472 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $57.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Jake Ferguson's lines for Sun 1 Nov
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 39.5.
Receptions (Alt) 2.5
+160 best over price · 7 books
Jake Ferguson's receptions (alt) line is 2.5, best over price +160 across 7 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 4.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 4.5.
Receptions (Alt) 3.5
+160 best over price · 7 books
Jake Ferguson's receptions (alt) line is 3.5, best over price +160 across 7 books.
Receptions (Alt) 1.5
-154 best over price · 11 books
Jake Ferguson's receptions (alt) line is 1.5, best over price -154 across 11 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 49.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 49.5.
Receptions (Alt) 4.5
Jake Ferguson's receptions (alt) line is 4.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 59.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 59.5.
Betting angles
2 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · Arizona CardinalsO 39.5 +472 39.5posted line · receiving yds
Jake Ferguson has a live NFL receiving yards market for Arizona Cardinals: over 39.5 receiving yds priced at +472.
ReceptionsNext game · Arizona CardinalsO 2.5 +146 2.5posted line · receptions
Jake Ferguson has a live NFL receptions market for Arizona Cardinals: over 2.5 receptions priced at +146.
Anytime TD7 lines trackedNo line posted
47%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked7
Jake Ferguson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 7 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 47%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 26 Oct 26 |
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 26 Oct 26 |
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 26 Oct 26 |
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 26 Oct 26 |
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 26 Oct 26 |
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 26 Oct 26 |
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
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Jake Ferguson (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Ferguson is Over 39.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.9% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys on Sunday 1 November at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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