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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Ferguson is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer.
On the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market the model assigns a model win probability of 45%, versus the book's implied 26%, for a model edge of +18.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
NFL

Jake Ferguson

DAL

+18.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Yes +280 (3.80)
+18.4% Edge
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Ferguson remains the Cowboys' unquestioned starting tight end ahead of training camp, Chris Amaya of ExpressNews.com reports.
updated Jul 8, 11:51PM UTC · 12d old
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Model Probability
44.7%
Implied Probability
26.3%
Model Edge
+18.4%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime Touchdown Scorer44.7%26.3%2.24+18.4%

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AI Analysis

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Jake Ferguson (DAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+280)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Jake Ferguson to score a touchdown at any time during the Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants game requires careful consideration of his recent and overall performance. Ferguson has not scored a touchdown in his last three games, and his overall hit rate is 5/33, which suggests a relatively low scoring rate. His performance is equally unremarkable at home games, with a hit rate of 4/16. However, the data also shows that Ferguson has performed slightly better against the New York Giants, scoring 1/3 times in the last three meetings, and 1/1 times at home. Despite these stats, his recent performance and overall hit rate might raise caution. The model edge of 0.1838 represents a positive expectation, but considering Ferguson's past performance, it suggests that this bet carries a considerable amount of risk.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD7 lines trackedNo line posted
47%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked7

Jake Ferguson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 7 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 47%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jake Ferguson (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Ferguson is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.4% on this pick. Their next game is New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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