Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Ferguson is Under 3.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 43 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 43%, the price says 57%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 9:35PM UTC
NFL
Jake Ferguson
DAL
Jake Ferguson has one live pick today: Receptions Under 3.5 that pays $177 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions
Under 3.5
-130 (1.77) · $100→$177
Value call
Washington Commanders
@
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Ferguson caught both of his targets for six yards during Sunday night's 28-20 loss to the Giants.
updated Sep 15, 2:06AM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
43 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 43.0% · before adjusting for past results 57.9% · the book's price implies 56.5% · gap -13.5%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions | 57.9% | 43.0% | 56.5% | 1.89 | +1.4% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Jake Ferguson (DAL) Under 3.5 Receptions (-130)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Dallas Cowboys play Washington Commanders in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jake Ferguson (DAL) Under 3.5 Receptions. It was priced at -130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Jake Ferguson's lines for Sun 20 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receptions 3.5
Jake Ferguson's receptions line is 3.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 39.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 29.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 26.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 26.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 24.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 19.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 9.5
Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (alt) line is 9.5.
Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD7 lines trackedNo line posted
47%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked7
Jake Ferguson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 7 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 47%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards31 lines trackedNo line posted 26.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–39.5model over57%tips tracked31
Jake Ferguson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 31 times, typically around a 26.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions4 lines trackedNo line posted 3.5typical line · receptions
line range3.5–3.5tips tracked4
Jake Ferguson's NFL receptions prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jake Ferguson (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Ferguson is Under 3.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys on Sunday 20 September at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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