Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
NFL

Pat Freiermuth

PIT

Value call

Pat Freiermuth has one live pick today: over 14.5 receiving yards that pays $135 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
35.5 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 75.0% · before adjusting for past results 83.2% · the book's price implies 74.1% · gap +0.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh · Indoor
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Pat Freiermuth
over 14.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 -286 (1.35) · $100→$135
Value call
HIGHWins about 75 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.50 Odds-286
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Pat Freiermuth is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 75%, the price says 74%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 12:42AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Freiermuth caught five of seven targets for 44 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-22 win over the Colts. He added one yard on his lone carry.
updated Oct 12, 12:29AM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)83.2%75.0%74.1%1.35+9.1%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts: Pat Freiermuth Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (Alt) (-286)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The Steelers' tight end, Pat Freiermuth, has been getting a lot of targets lately, which means he has a good chance to rack up receiving yards against the Colts' defense. The Colts can struggle to stop tight ends, and with the Steelers playing at home, Freiermuth should have plenty of opportunities to make some big plays. Betting on him to get over 14.5 receiving yards looks solid based on our numbers, which see this as a strong favorite. The biggest risk is that the Colts might tighten up their defense, but with Freiermuth's recent form, he should still find a way to break through.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)
Overall Hit Rate (20 picks) 85.0% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards148 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–89.5model over82%tips tracked148

Pat Freiermuth's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 148 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD20 lines trackedNo line posted
27%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked20

Pat Freiermuth's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 20 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 27%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions38 lines trackedNo line posted
2.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–5.5model over71%tips tracked38

Pat Freiermuth's NFL receptions prop has been priced 38 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Pat Freiermuth average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards 24.5 Over -115 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5 Over -115 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 85.0% on tracked Pat Freiermuth picks. The latest model pick for Pat Freiermuth is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.1% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday 11 October at Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.