Pat Freiermuth has one live pick today: over 2.5 receptions that pays $176 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
66 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 66.3% · the book's price implies 56.8% · gap +9.5%.
Latest Model PickFree
Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Cincinnati Bengals
Pat Freiermuth
over 2.5 receptions
Receptions
Over 2.5
-132 (1.76) · $100→$176
Value call
HIGHWins about 66 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$17.60
Odds-132
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Pat Freiermuth is Over 2.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 66%, the price says 57%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:04PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Is Pat Freiermuth playing today? Not sure yet. Pat Freiermuth is listed as questionable, so it is a game-day call. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
QUESTIONABLE
Freiermuth (illness) was added to Saturday's injury report and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Cincinnati.
updated Nov 14, 5:39PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions | 66.3% | — | 56.8% | 1.88 | +9.5% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Over 2.5 Receptions (-132)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Cincinnati Bengals play Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL on Monday 16 November 2026. The bet we are looking at is Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Over 2.5 Receptions. It was priced at -132 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Pat Freiermuth's lines for Mon 16 Nov
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receptions 2.5
-130 best over price · 7 booksQuestionable
Pat Freiermuth's receptions line is 2.5, best over price -130 across 7 books.
Receptions (Alt) 3.5
-130 best over price · 7 booksQuestionable
Pat Freiermuth's receptions (alt) line is 3.5, best over price -130 across 7 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 9.5
Questionable
Pat Freiermuth's receiving yards (alt) line is 9.5.
Receptions (Alt) 4.5
-130 best over price · 7 booksQuestionable
Pat Freiermuth's receptions (alt) line is 4.5, best over price -130 across 7 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5
Questionable
Pat Freiermuth's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 19.5
Questionable
Pat Freiermuth's receiving yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Receiving Yards 25.5
-114 best over price · 2 booksQuestionable
Pat Freiermuth's receiving yards line is 25.5, best over price -114 across 2 books.
Receptions (Alt) 1.5
-130 best over price · 7 booksQuestionable
Pat Freiermuth's receptions (alt) line is 1.5, best over price -130 across 7 books.
Betting angles
2 markets liveReceptionsNext game · Cincinnati BengalsO 2.5 -132 2.5posted line · receptions
Pat Freiermuth has a live NFL receptions market for Cincinnati Bengals: over 2.5 receptions priced at -132.
Receiving YardsNext game · Cincinnati BengalsO 9.5 -526 9.5posted line · receiving yds
Pat Freiermuth has a live NFL receiving yards market for Cincinnati Bengals: over 9.5 receiving yds priced at -526.
Anytime TD21 lines trackedNo line posted
27%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked21
Pat Freiermuth's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 21 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 27%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 01 Nov 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
14.5 |
Over |
-256 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
9.5 |
Over |
-455 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
19.5 |
Over |
-164 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Pat Freiermuth (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Pat Freiermuth is Over 2.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.5% on this pick. Their next game is Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday 15 November at Cincinnati. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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