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The latest Bet Better model pick for Pat Freiermuth is Under 20.5 on Receiving Yards.
On the Receiving Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 69%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +17.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:17PM UTC
NFL

Pat Freiermuth

PIT

+17.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 20.5 -108 (1.93)
+17.2% Edge
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Freiermuth is a candidate to take on a larger role in Pittsburgh's passing game during the 2026 campaign, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
updated Jul 17, 3:09PM UTC · 3d old
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Model Probability
69.0%
Implied Probability
51.8%
Model Edge
+17.2%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards69.0%51.8%1.45+17.2%

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AI Analysis

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Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistics show a clear trend that supports betting on 'Under 20.5' for Pat Freiermuth's player reception yards. Freiermuth's overall and home hit rates for the 'Under' outcome have been consistently low. Over his last 5 games, he has not hit the 'Over' mark once, and in his last 3 games, both home and away, he also failed to cross this threshold. This pattern extends over the last 10 and 20 games where Freiermuth's hit rates were 1/10 and 5/20 respectively. Furthermore, he is currently on a hit streak of zero. It's important to note that these statistics are indicative of a lack of consistency in Freiermuth's performance. Therefore, the data-driven rationale suggests betting on under 20.5 yards for Freiermuth's player reception yards in the upcoming game against the Minnesota Vikings would be a prudent choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards6 lines trackedNo line posted
22.5typical line · receiving yds
line range15.5–22.5tips tracked6

Pat Freiermuth's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 6 times, typically around a 22.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Pat Freiermuth is Under 20.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.2% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers at Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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