Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Pat Freiermuth is Under 34.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 70%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:03PM UTC
NFL
Pat Freiermuth
PIT
Pat Freiermuth has one live pick today: Receiving Yards Under 34.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards
Under 34.5
-114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
Cincinnati Bengals
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh · Indoor
Sun 27 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Freiermuth caught four passes (on five targets) for 32 yards while logging a two-yard carry during the Steelers' 20-3 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
updated Sep 21, 10:54PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
28.0 Receiving Yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 70.2% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +17.0%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards | 70.2% | — | 53.2% | 2.00 | +17.0% |
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Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Pittsburgh Steelers play Cincinnati Bengals in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Under 34.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Pat Freiermuth's lines for Sun 27 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receiving Yards 34.5
-114 best over price · 7 books
Pat Freiermuth's receiving yards line is 34.5, best over price -114 across 7 books.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Pat Freiermuth's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Betting angles
1 market liveReceiving YardsNext game · Cincinnati BengalsU 34.5 -114 34.5posted line · receiving yds
Pat Freiermuth has a live NFL receiving yards market for Cincinnati Bengals: under 34.5 receiving yds priced at -114.
Anytime TD15 lines trackedNo line posted
27%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked15
Pat Freiermuth's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 15 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 27%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions12 lines trackedNo line posted 2.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–3.5tips tracked12
Pat Freiermuth's NFL receptions prop has been priced 12 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Total Touchdowns |
1.5 |
Over |
+3500 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receptions |
2.5 |
Under |
+104 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
19.5 |
Over |
-192 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Pat Freiermuth (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Pat Freiermuth is Under 34.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.0% on this pick. Their next game is Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday 27 September at Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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