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NFL

Dawson Knox

BUF

Value call

Dawson Knox has one live pick today: under 11.5 receiving yards that pays $193 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
57 in 100
Predicted
17.3 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 56.5% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +4.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles · Indoor
Mon 12 Oct, 8:15 PM ET
Dawson Knox
under 11.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards Under 11.5 -108 (1.93) · $100→$193
Value call
LEANWins about 57 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.30 Odds-108
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dawson Knox is Under 11.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 57 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 57%, the price says 52%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 12, 5:22PM UTC

Is Dawson Knox playing today? Yes, on the latest team news. Dawson Knox is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.

UNKNOWN
Knox caught both of his targets for 13 yards in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
updated Oct 6, 2:41AM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards56.5%—51.8%2.04+4.7%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

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AI Analysis

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Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills: Dawson Knox Under 11.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The Rams' defense has been tough against tight ends, allowing very few touchdowns last season. Dawson Knox, the Bills' tight end, is only averaging around 2.6 catches and 3.3 targets in his last 15 games. With the Rams focusing on limiting big plays, Knox might struggle to get open for those yards. Betting on Knox to stay under 11.5 receiving yards feels like a smart move. The matchup is pretty even, but Knox's recent form and the Rams' strong defense against tight ends make this a solid pick. Just remember, the game could always surprise us, especially if Knox gets more looks than expected.

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Pick History & Track Record

Dawson Knox's lines for Tue 13 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Receiving Yards 11.5
-114 best over price · 7 books

Dawson Knox's receiving yards line is 11.5, best over price -114 across 7 books.

Receptions (Alt) 3.5
+115 best over price · 11 books

Dawson Knox's receptions (alt) line is 3.5, best over price +115 across 11 books.

Receptions (Alt) 2.5
+115 best over price · 11 books

Dawson Knox's receptions (alt) line is 2.5, best over price +115 across 11 books.

Receptions 1.5
+115 best over price · 11 books

Dawson Knox's receptions line is 1.5, best over price +115 across 11 books.

Receptions (Alt) 4.5
+115 best over price · 11 books

Dawson Knox's receptions (alt) line is 4.5, best over price +115 across 11 books.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5

Dawson Knox's receiving yards (alt) line is 39.5.

Receiving Yards 10.5
-120 best over price · 2 books

Dawson Knox's receiving yards line is 10.5, best over price -120 across 2 books.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5

Dawson Knox's receiving yards (alt) line is 29.5.

Betting angles

2 markets live
Receiving YardsNext game · Los Angeles RamsU 11.5 -108
11.5posted line · receiving yds

Dawson Knox has a live NFL receiving yards market for Los Angeles Rams: under 11.5 receiving yds priced at -108.

ReceptionsNext game · Los Angeles RamsU 1.5 -143
1.5posted line · receptions

Dawson Knox has a live NFL receptions market for Los Angeles Rams: under 1.5 receptions priced at -143.

Anytime TD7 lines trackedNo line posted
17%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked7

Dawson Knox's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 7 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 17%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receptions 1.5 Over +158 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receptions (Alt) 1.5 Over +152 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Dawson Knox (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dawson Knox is Under 11.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.7% on this pick. Their next game is Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams on Monday 12 October at Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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