Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dawson Knox is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 3 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 3%, the price says 3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 22, 11:55AM UTC
NFL
Dawson Knox
BUF
Dawson Knox has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $3,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+3000 (31.00) · $100→$3,100
Value call
Detroit Lions
@
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Fri 18 Sep, 12:15AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Knox caught both of his passes for five yards and a touchdown during the Bills' 41-31 win over the Lions on Thursday.
updated Sep 18, 11:11PM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
3 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 2.6% · before adjusting for past results 16.8% · the book's price implies 3.2% · gap -0.6%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 16.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 31.00 | +13.6% |
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Dawson Knox (BUF) Yes Player last td (+3000)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dawson Knox (BUF) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +3000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $310 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards36 lines trackedNo line posted 12.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–39.5model over61%tips tracked36
Dawson Knox's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 36 times, typically around a 12.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions18 lines trackedNo line posted 1.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–4.5model over57%tips tracked18
Dawson Knox's NFL receptions prop has been priced 18 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD2 lines trackedNo line posted
18%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked2
Dawson Knox's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 2 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 18%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
4.5 |
Over |
-294 |
✓ HIT |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receptions (Alt) |
1.5 |
Over |
+120 |
✓ HIT |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receptions (Alt) |
0.5 |
Over |
-400 |
✓ HIT |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 18 Sep 26 |
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Dawson Knox (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dawson Knox is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.6% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills on Friday 18 September at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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