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NFL

Dawson Knox

BUF

Value call

Dawson Knox has one live pick today: over 9.5 receiving yards that pays $223 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
52 in 100
Predicted
21.6 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 52.0% · before adjusting for past results 61.9% · the book's price implies 44.8% · gap +7.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Sun 1 Nov, 1:00 PM ET
Dawson Knox
over 9.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 9.5 +123 (2.23) · $100→$223
Value call
LEANWins about 52 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$22.30 Odds+123
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dawson Knox is Over 9.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 52%, the price says 45%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 4, 11:52AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$14,174 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Knox caught one of two targets for six yards in Sunday's 36-10 win over the Ravens.
updated Nov 3, 3:28AM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)61.9%52.0%44.8%2.23+17.0%

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AI Analysis

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Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens: Dawson Knox Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (Alt) (+123)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The Buffalo Bills are at home against the Baltimore Ravens, and this game should be an exciting matchup. Dawson Knox has been showing some good form lately, and with the Ravens' defense focusing on stopping the run, he could find some open space to make big plays. The Bills have a strong offense, and Knox is a key part of their passing game. Betting on Knox to get over 9.5 receiving yards looks promising because the numbers suggest he has a good chance to hit that mark. The biggest risk is that the two teams are closely matched, which could mean a lot of attention on Knox from the Ravens' defense. Still, with the game being at home and the way the Bills like to use him, it's worth a shot.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards103 lines trackedNo line posted
29.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–69.5model over21%tips tracked103

Dawson Knox's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 103 times, typically around a 29.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions68 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–4.5model over51%tips tracked68

Dawson Knox's NFL receptions prop has been priced 68 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD10 lines trackedNo line posted
17%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked10

Dawson Knox's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 10 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 17%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Dawson Knox average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Oct 26 Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams Receiving Yards 11.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Dawson Knox (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dawson Knox is Over 9.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.0% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills on Sunday 1 November at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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