Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mike Gesicki is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 70%, the price says 65%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 3:22AM UTC
NFL
Mike Gesicki
CIN
Mike Gesicki has one live pick today: Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 that pays $154 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 14.5
-185 (1.54) · $100→$154
Value call
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 339 of 532 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Gesicki caught five passes on seven targets for 78 yards and a touchdown during the Bengals' 33-27 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday.
updated Sep 13, 10:58PM UTC · 7d old
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How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
28.1 Receiving Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 70.2% · before adjusting for past results 70.2% · the book's price implies 64.9% · gap +5.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 70.2% | 70.2% | 64.9% | 1.54 | +5.3% |
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Mike Gesicki (CIN) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (-185)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Cincinnati Bengals play Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Mike Gesicki (CIN) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -185 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards52 lines trackedNo line posted 24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–49.5model over63%tips tracked52
Mike Gesicki's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 52 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD15 lines trackedNo line posted
36%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked15
Mike Gesicki's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 15 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 36%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions48 lines trackedNo line posted 2.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–5.5model over55%tips tracked48
Mike Gesicki's NFL receptions prop has been priced 48 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
14.5 |
Over |
-185 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
9.5 |
Over |
-385 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
4.5 |
Over |
-909 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Mike Gesicki (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mike Gesicki is Over 14.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.3% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday 13 September at Cincinnati. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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