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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mike Gesicki is Under 20.5 on Receiving Yards.
On the Receiving Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 66%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +12.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
NFL

Mike Gesicki

CIN

+12.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 20.5 -112 (1.89)
+12.7% Edge
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
As the coming season approaches, Gesicki profiles as the main receiving option in a Bengals tight end corps that also features Drew Sample, who makes most of his impact as an inline blocker, John Sheeran of A to Z Sports reports.
updated Jun 27, 2:16PM UTC · 23d old
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Model Probability
65.6%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+12.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards65.6%—52.9%1.52+12.7%

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AI Analysis

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Mike Gesicki (CIN) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under bet on Mike Gesicki's reception yards seems promising when we observe his recent performance and trends. Over the last 10 games, Gesicki has only surpassed 20.5 reception yards twice, demonstrating a low overall hit rate of 20%. His performance at home games doesn't inspire confidence either, with a hit rate of just 40% in the last 10 games. His current overall and home hit streaks are both at zero, indicating a recent lack of productivity. His overall performance isn't much better, with a hit rate of just 47% which highlights his inconsistency. His last five games provide even more support for the under bet, as he’s only surpassed 20.5 reception yards once. Given these statistics, betting under 20.5 on Gesicki's reception yards seems to be a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards10 lines trackedNo line posted
19.5typical line · receiving yds
line range13.5–20.5tips tracked10

Mike Gesicki's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 10 times, typically around a 19.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD6 lines trackedNo line posted
47%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked6

Mike Gesicki's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 6 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 47%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Mike Gesicki (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mike Gesicki is Under 20.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.7% on this pick. Their next game is Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals at Cincinnati. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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