Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin Jefferson is Over 7.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 42 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 42%, the price says 30%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 4:27AM UTC
NFL
Justin Jefferson
MIN
Justin Jefferson has one live pick today: Receptions (Alt) Over 7.5 that pays $339 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 7.5
+239 (3.39) · $100→$339
Value call
Green Bay Packers
@
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Jefferson caught eight of nine targets for 92 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 39-22 win over the Packers. He also caught a successful two-point conversion.
updated Sep 14, 12:36AM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
42 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 42.2% · before adjusting for past results 42.2% · the book's price implies 29.5% · gap +12.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 42.2% | 42.2% | 29.5% | 3.39 | +12.7% |
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Justin Jefferson (MIN) Over 7.5 Player receptions alternate (+239)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Minnesota Vikings play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Justin Jefferson (MIN) Over 7.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +239 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $33.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD8 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked8
Justin Jefferson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 8 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards74 lines trackedNo line posted 24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range24.5–75.5model over99%tips tracked74
Justin Jefferson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 74 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions115 lines trackedNo line posted 5.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–11.5model over74%tips tracked115
Justin Jefferson's NFL receptions prop has been priced 115 times, typically around a 5.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receptions (Alt) |
7.5 |
Over |
+239 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receptions (Alt) |
6.5 |
Over |
+132 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receptions (Alt) |
5.5 |
Over |
-145 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Justin Jefferson (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin Jefferson is Over 7.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.7% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings on Sunday 13 September at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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