Justin Jefferson has one live pick today: under 5.5 receptions that pays $234 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
63 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 62.7% · the book's price implies 42.7% · gap +20.0%.
Latest Model PickFree
Minnesota Vikings
@
New Orleans Saints
Justin Jefferson
under 5.5 receptions
Receptions
Under 5.5
+134 (2.34) · $100→$234
Value call
HIGHWins about 63 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$23.40
Odds+134
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin Jefferson is Under 5.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 63%, the price says 43%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 9:42PM UTC
Is Justin Jefferson playing tomorrow? Not sure yet. Justin Jefferson is listed as questionable, so it is a game-day call. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
QUESTIONABLE
Jefferson (ankle) and Jordan Addison (hamstring) were at practice Friday, Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com reports.
updated Oct 9, 5:08PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
See every number
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions | 62.7% | — | 42.7% | 2.50 | +20.0% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime
Justin Jefferson (MIN) Under 5.5 Receptions (+134)
Odds correct at time of publishing
New Orleans Saints play Minnesota Vikings in the NFL on Sunday 11 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Justin Jefferson (MIN) Under 5.5 Receptions. It was priced at +134 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Justin Jefferson's lines for Sun 11 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receptions 5.5
-179 best over price · 1 book
Justin Jefferson's receptions line is 5.5, best over price -179 across 1 book.
Betting angles
1 market liveReceptionsNext game · New Orleans SaintsU 5.5 +134 5.5posted line · receptions
Justin Jefferson has a live NFL receptions market for New Orleans Saints: under 5.5 receptions priced at +134.
Anytime TD8 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked8
Justin Jefferson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 8 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards74 lines trackedNo line posted 24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range24.5–75.5model over99%tips tracked74
Justin Jefferson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 74 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receptions (Alt) |
6.5 |
Over |
+130 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receptions |
5.5 |
Over |
-139 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receptions (Alt) |
7.5 |
Over |
+237 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.
Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime
Justin Jefferson (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin Jefferson is Under 5.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.0% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints on Sunday 11 October at New Orleans. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.