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NFL

Justin Jefferson

MIN

Value call

Justin Jefferson has one live pick today: under 5.5 receptions that pays $211 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
46 in 100
Predicted
4.9 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 45.8% · before adjusting for past results 64.1% · the book's price implies 47.4% · gap -1.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
Sun 25 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Justin Jefferson
under 5.5 receptions
Receptions Under 5.5 +111 (2.11) · $100→$211
Value call
LEANWins about 46 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$21.10 Odds+111
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin Jefferson is Under 5.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 46 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 46%, the price says 47%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 3:05AM UTC
UNKNOWN
Jefferson caught four of seven targets for 44 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts.
updated Oct 25, 9:47PM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions64.1%45.8%47.4%2.23+16.7%

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AI Analysis

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Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts: Justin Jefferson Under 5.5 Receptions (+106)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Justin Jefferson needs to catch fewer than 6 passes for this bet to win tonight. The Vikings are facing the Colts, who have a solid defense that can make it tough for Jefferson to get open. While he's a great player, the Colts have shown they can limit top receivers, especially when they focus on shutting them down. Our numbers suggest there's a good chance this will happen. Jefferson might struggle to find space against tight coverage, and the Vikings also have other offensive options to consider. However, the risk is that he could still get a few easy catches if the Colts are not careful.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD10 lines trackedNo line posted
48%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked10

Justin Jefferson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 10 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 48%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards99 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range24.5–75.5model over99%tips tracked99

Justin Jefferson's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 99 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions122 lines trackedNo line posted
5.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–11.5model over74%tips tracked122

Justin Jefferson's NFL receptions prop has been priced 122 times, typically around a 5.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Justin Jefferson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings Receptions 5.5 Under +111 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards 74.5 Under -111 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards 72.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Justin Jefferson (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin Jefferson is Under 5.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.7% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings on Sunday 25 October at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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