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The latest Bet Better model pick for Dak Prescott is Over 4.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On the Rushing Yards (Alt) market the model assigns a model win probability of 62%, versus the book's implied 50%, for a model edge of +12.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
NFL

Dak Prescott

DAL

+12.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 4.5 +100 (2.00)
+12.3% Edge
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer said Tuesday that Prescott will be limited at mandatory minicamp due to knee soreness, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
updated Jun 16, 5:01PM UTC · 34d old
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Model Probability
62.3%
Implied Probability
50.0%
Model Edge
+12.3%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)62.3%50.0%1.61+12.3%

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AI Analysis

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Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 4.5 Player rush yds alternate (+100)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Dak Prescott to have over 4.5 rushing yards in the game against the New York Giants is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, Dak's hit rate at home is strong. Over his last 10 home games, he has beaten this mark 80% of the time (8/10). Further, when playing against the Giants, Prescott has typically performed well with a 2/3 hit rate both overall and at home. His hit rate rises to 100% (1/1) for games played at home against the Giants, indicating that the team's defensive strategy may play to his strengths as a rusher. Although his overall current hit streak is 0, he maintains a hit streak of 1 when playing against the Giants at home. Utilizing these statistics, the data suggests there's a credible chance Prescott will exceed 4.5 rushing yards in this particular game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards35 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range3.5–39.5model over22%tips tracked35

Dak Prescott's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 35 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Dak Prescott (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dak Prescott is Over 4.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.3% on this pick. Their next game is New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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