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NFL

Dak Prescott

DAL

Value call

Dak Prescott has one live pick today: over 14.5 rushing yards that pays $272 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
38 in 100
Predicted
18.6 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 37.6% · before adjusting for past results 48.4% · the book's price implies 36.8% · gap +0.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
Thu 8 Oct, 8:15 PM ET
Dak Prescott
over 14.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 +172 (2.72) · $100→$272
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 38 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$27.20 Odds+172
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dak Prescott is Over 14.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 38 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 38%, the price says 37%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 5:47PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Prescott completed 24 of 42 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
updated Oct 9, 3:56AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)48.4%37.6%36.8%2.72+11.6%

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AI Analysis

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Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dak Prescott Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (Alt) (+172)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Dak Prescott needs to rush for more than 14.5 yards tonight against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has shown he can be a dual-threat quarterback, which could be important given how both teams perform. The Cowboys have been moving the ball well, averaging almost 21 first downs a game, while the Buccaneers have struggled to stop teams from gaining yards, especially on the ground. The risk is that the defense from Tampa Bay has held up better against rushing yards than passing ones, giving up just over 99 yards per game on the ground. However, Prescott's ability to run could make a big difference. With the Cowboys at home and their offense clicking, there's a good chance he can hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards172 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range3.5–49.5model over24%tips tracked172

Dak Prescott's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 172 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD16 lines trackedNo line posted
18%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked16

Dak Prescott's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 16 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 18%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards15 lines trackedNo line posted
174.5typical line · passing yds
line range174.5–199.5model over98%tips tracked15

Dak Prescott's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 15 times, typically around a 174.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Dak Prescott average?How many rushing yards does Dak Prescott average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Passing Touchdowns 1.5 Under +169 ✓ HIT
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Interceptions Thrown 0.5 Over +102 ✓ HIT
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
08 Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Rushing Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Dak Prescott (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dak Prescott is Over 14.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.6% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys on Thursday 8 October at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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