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NFL

Sam LaPorta

DET

Value call

Sam LaPorta has one live pick today: over 29.5 receiving yards that pays $126 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
85 in 100
Predicted
56.4 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 85.0% · before adjusting for past results 89.8% · the book's price implies 79.4% · gap +5.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
Sun 25 Oct, 4:25 PM ET
Sam LaPorta
over 29.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 29.5 -385 (1.26) · $100→$126
Value call
HIGHWins about 85 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$12.60 Odds-385
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam LaPorta is Over 29.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 85 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 85%, the price says 79%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 5:14PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
LaPorta caught one of two targets for 18 yards in Sunday's 20-17 win over the Packers.
updated Oct 26, 2:14AM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)89.8%85.0%79.4%1.26+10.5%

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AI Analysis

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Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers: Sam LaPorta Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (Alt) (-385)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For Sam LaPorta to go over 29.5 receiving yards, he just needs to have a solid game against the Green Bay Packers. The Lions' offense can be tricky, especially since they've struggled with allowing touchdowns to wide receivers in the past, which opens up opportunities for LaPorta to shine. Plus, the Packers have been giving up a decent amount of yardage, so this bet feels like a good chance. However, the Packers are tough at home, and their defense can put pressure on the quarterback. If they get to the Lions' quarterback early, it might limit LaPorta's chances. Still, with the Lions needing to score, LaPorta could very well find the space he needs to surpass that yard mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD15 lines trackedNo line posted
45%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked15

Sam LaPorta's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 15 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 45%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards171 lines trackedNo line posted
49.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–79.5model over57%tips tracked171

Sam LaPorta's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 171 times, typically around a 49.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions113 lines trackedNo line posted
3.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–8.5model over73%tips tracked113

Sam LaPorta's NFL receptions prop has been priced 113 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Sam LaPorta average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Oct 26 Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5 Over -1667 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Receiving Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam LaPorta (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam LaPorta is Over 29.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.5% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions on Sunday 25 October at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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