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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam LaPorta is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer.
On the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market the model assigns a model win probability of 41%, versus the book's implied 35%, for a model edge of +6.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NFL

Sam LaPorta

DET

+6.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Yes +185 (2.85)
+6.1% Edge
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Coach Dan Campbell said that LaPorta (back), who was a partial participant in Tuesday's mandatory minicamp practice, could be cleared for the start of training camp next month, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports. "We like where he's going," Campbell said of the tight end Tuesday. "He's trending the right way."
updated Jun 17, 2:50PM UTC · 33d old
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Model Probability
41.2%
Implied Probability
35.1%
Model Edge
+6.1%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime Touchdown Scorer41.2%35.1%2.43+6.1%

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AI Analysis

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Sam LaPorta (DET) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

While Sam LaPorta's overall performance for scoring a touchdown may seem inconsistent, his performance against the Chicago Bears presents a more promising picture for bettors. LaPorta's hit rate against the Bears overall is 50% (2/4), which increases to a 100% (2/2) current hit streak. This suggests that LaPorta tends to perform well against this team. Furthermore, when playing against the Bears at home, LaPorta has a 50% hit rate (1/2) and a current hit streak of 1. This suggests he has a higher likelihood of scoring when playing against the Bears, especially at home. However, bettors should proceed with caution due to his recent performance, with an overall hit rate of only 34% (13/38), and no current hit streak overall or at home. The model edge of 6.1% indicates a slight advantage, but the decision should weight on LaPorta's specific performance against the

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD9 lines trackedNo line posted
48%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked9

Sam LaPorta's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 9 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 48%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam LaPorta (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam LaPorta is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.1% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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