Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam LaPorta is Over 24.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 97 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 97%, the price says 78%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 3:20AM UTC
NFL
Sam LaPorta
DET
Sam LaPorta has one live pick today: Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 24.5 that pays $129 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 24.5
-345 (1.29) · $100→$129
Value call
New Orleans Saints
@
Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 339 of 532 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
LaPorta brought in six of seven targets for 52 yards and a touchdown in the Lions' 41-31 loss to the Bills on Thursday.
updated Sep 18, 4:48AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
97 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 96.8% · before adjusting for past results 96.8% · the book's price implies 77.5% · gap +19.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 96.8% | 96.8% | 77.5% | 1.29 | +19.3% |
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Sam LaPorta (DET) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate (-345)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Detroit Lions play New Orleans Saints in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sam LaPorta (DET) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -345 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Overall Hit Rate (22 picks)
72.7%
Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD9 lines trackedNo line posted
48%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked9
Sam LaPorta's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 9 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 48%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards84 lines trackedNo line posted 14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–59.5model over99%tips tracked84
Sam LaPorta's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 84 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions106 lines trackedNo line posted 3.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–8.5model over73%tips tracked106
Sam LaPorta's NFL receptions prop has been priced 106 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
24.5 |
Over |
-345 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
19.5 |
Over |
-588 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
14.5 |
Over |
-833 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Sam LaPorta (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 72.7% on tracked Sam LaPorta picks. The latest model pick for Sam LaPorta is Over 24.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.3% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions on Sunday 13 September at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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