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NFL

Baker Mayfield

TB

Value call

Baker Mayfield has one live pick today: over 174.5 passing yards that pays $130 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
95 in 100
Predicted
227.9 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 95.2% · before adjusting for past results 96.9% · the book's price implies 76.9% · gap +18.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay · Indoor
Sun 27 Sep, 4:05 PM ET
Baker Mayfield
over 174.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 174.5 -333 (1.30) · $100→$130
Value call
HIGHWins about 95 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.00 Odds-333
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Baker Mayfield is Over 174.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 95 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 95%, the price says 77%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 12:40AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
DOUBTFUL
Mayfield (right thumb) officially didn't practice Wednesday.
updated Oct 14, 8:25PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)96.9%95.2%76.9%1.30+20.0%

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AI Analysis

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Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 174.5 Player pass yds alternate (-333)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Buccaneers play Minnesota Vikings in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 174.5 Player pass yds alternate. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards68 lines trackedNo line posted
16.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–59.5model over62%tips tracked68

Baker Mayfield's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 68 times, typically around a 16.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD9 lines trackedNo line posted
18%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked9

Baker Mayfield's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 9 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 18%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards71 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–229.5model over99%tips tracked71

Baker Mayfield's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 71 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Sep 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
27 Sep 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
27 Sep 26 Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Baker Mayfield (TB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Baker Mayfield is Over 174.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.0% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday 27 September at Tampa Bay. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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