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The latest Bet Better model pick for Baker Mayfield is Under 14.5 on Rushing Yards.
On the Rushing Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 56%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +1.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
NFL

Baker Mayfield

TB

+1.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards Under 14.5 -120 (1.83)
+1.3% Edge
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Mayfield says he played through knee, biceps and shoulder injuries during the 2025 season, River Wells of SI.com reports.
updated Jul 13, 7:15PM UTC · 7d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
56.0%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+1.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards56.0%—54.6%1.79+1.3%

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AI Analysis

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Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Baker Mayfield to rush for under 14.5 yards in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles game is a statistically sound option. Mayfield's recent performances indicate a downward trend in his rushing yards. His overall hit rate for the last five games is 0/5, and his home hit rate for the last five games is slightly better at 2/5, but still does not inspire confidence. His current hit streak both overall and at home is zero, further pointing to a likely underperformance. While his historical performance against Philadelphia Eagles seems promising with a hit rate of 2/2 both overall and at home, it's important to consider the recency and consistency of his performances. The data suggests that his recent form is more indicative of his performance in this game. As such, betting under 14.5 for Mayfield's rushing yards is a statistically driven decision.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards17 lines trackedNo line posted
16.5typical line · rushing yds
line range8.5–29.5tips tracked17

Baker Mayfield's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 17 times, typically around a 16.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Baker Mayfield (TB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Baker Mayfield is Under 14.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.3% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tampa Bay. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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