Baker Mayfield has one live pick today: under 17.5 rushing yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
65 in 100
Predicted
16.5 rushing yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 65.2% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +12.0%.
Latest Model PickFree
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Chicago Bears
Baker Mayfield
under 17.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards
Under 17.5
-114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
HIGHWins about 65 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$18.80
Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Baker Mayfield is Under 17.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 65%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 8, 10:14AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Is Baker Mayfield playing today? Yes, on the latest team news. Baker Mayfield is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
UNKNOWN
Mayfield failed to complete any of his three pass attempts in the Buccaneers' 16-0 win over the Falcons on Sunday. He also rushed four times for 14 yards.
updated Nov 2, 2:26AM UTC · 6d old
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards | 65.2% | — | 53.2% | 2.00 | +12.0% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 17.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Chicago Bears play Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL on Monday 9 November 2026. The bet we are looking at is Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 17.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Baker Mayfield's lines for Mon 9 Nov
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Rushing Yards 17.5
-110 best over price · 4 books
Baker Mayfield's rushing yards line is 17.5, best over price -110 across 4 books.
Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5
Baker Mayfield's passing yards (alt) line is 149.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 159.5
Baker Mayfield's passing yards (alt) line is 159.5.
Rushing Yards 16.5
-111 best over price · 4 books
Baker Mayfield's rushing yards line is 16.5, best over price -111 across 4 books.
Passing Yards (Alt) 169.5
Baker Mayfield's passing yards (alt) line is 169.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5
Baker Mayfield's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5
Baker Mayfield's passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 124.5
Baker Mayfield's passing yards (alt) line is 124.5.
Betting angles
3 markets livePassing YardsNext game · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago BearsO 149.5 -588
149.5posted line · passing yds
Baker Mayfield has a live NFL passing yards market for Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears: over 149.5 passing yds priced at -588.
Rushing YardsNext game · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago BearsU 17.5 -114 17.5posted line · rushing yds
Baker Mayfield has a live NFL rushing yards market for Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears: under 17.5 rushing yds priced at -114.
Anytime TDNext game · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago BearsAnytime TD +650
Baker Mayfield has a live NFL anytime td market for Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears priced at +650.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Pass Completions |
19.5 |
Under |
+101 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Rushing Yards |
16.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Rushing Yards |
15.5 |
Under |
-109 |
✓ HIT |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 01 Nov 26 |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Baker Mayfield (TB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Baker Mayfield is Under 17.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.0% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears on Sunday 8 November at Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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