Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Joe Burrow is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns.
On Passing Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 37%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 3:21AM UTC
NFL
Joe Burrow
CIN
Joe Burrow has one live pick today: Passing Touchdowns Under 1.5 that pays $272 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Passing Touchdowns
Under 1.5
+172 (2.72) · $100→$272
Value call
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 339 of 532 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Burrow (back) completed 20 of 31 passes for 207 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding one rush for minus-1 yard in the Bengals' 20-6 win over the Texans on Sunday.
updated Sep 20, 9:31PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
54 in 100
Predicted
1.6 Passing Touchdowns
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 54.1% · before adjusting for past results 54.1% · the book's price implies 36.8% · gap +17.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Touchdowns | 54.1% | 54.1% | 36.8% | 2.88 | +17.3% |
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Joe Burrow (CIN) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+172)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Cincinnati Bengals play Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Joe Burrow (CIN) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at +172 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formRushing Yards79 lines trackedNo line posted 6.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–39.5model over62%tips tracked79
Joe Burrow's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 79 times, typically around a 6.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Passing Yards21 lines trackedNo line posted
174.5typical line · passing yds
line range174.5–199.5model over98%tips tracked21
Joe Burrow's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 21 times, typically around a 174.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Passing Touchdowns |
1.5 |
Under |
+172 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Total Touchdowns |
1.5 |
Over |
+12500 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Passing Touchdowns |
2.5 |
Under |
-204 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Pass Completions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Pass Attempts |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Interceptions Thrown (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Joe Burrow (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Joe Burrow is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.3% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday 13 September at Cincinnati. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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