Joe Burrow has one live pick today: over 0.5 interceptions thrown that pays $244 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
57 in 100
Predicted
0.8 Interceptions Thrown
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 56.8% · the book's price implies 41.0% · gap +15.8%.
Latest Model PickFree
Cincinnati Bengals
@
Miami Dolphins
Joe Burrow
over 0.5 interceptions thrown
Interceptions Thrown
Over 0.5
+144 (2.44) · $100→$244
Value call
LEANWins about 57 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$24.40
Odds+144
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Joe Burrow is Over 0.5 on Interceptions Thrown.
On Interceptions Thrown, our numbers say this bet wins about 57 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 57%, the price says 41%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 8:10AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Is Joe Burrow playing today? Yes, on the latest team news. Joe Burrow is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
UNKNOWN
Burrow completed 39 of 54 passes for 428 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while rushing three times for six yards and another score in the Bengals' 22-17 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday. He also committed a fumble recovered by Cincinnati.
updated Oct 4, 8:58PM UTC · 6d old
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Interceptions Thrown | 56.8% | — | 41.0% | 2.58 | +15.8% |
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Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+144)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Miami Dolphins play Cincinnati Bengals in the NFL on Sunday 11 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown. It was priced at +144 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Joe Burrow's lines for Sun 11 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Interceptions Thrown 0.5
Joe Burrow's interceptions thrown line is 0.5.
Passing Touchdowns 1.5
Joe Burrow's passing touchdowns line is 1.5.
Anytime TD
+850 best over price · 14 books
Joe Burrow's anytime td line is posted, best over price +850 across 14 books.
Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5
Joe Burrow's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 24.5
Joe Burrow's rushing yards (alt) line is 24.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5
Joe Burrow's passing yards (alt) line is 149.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 19.5
Joe Burrow's rushing yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 29.5
Joe Burrow's rushing yards (alt) line is 29.5.
Betting angles
3 markets liveRushing YardsNext game · Miami DolphinsO 24.5 +591 24.5posted line · rushing yds
Joe Burrow has a live NFL rushing yards market for Miami Dolphins: over 24.5 rushing yds priced at +591.
Anytime TDNext game · Miami DolphinsAnytime TD +800
Joe Burrow has a live NFL anytime td market for Miami Dolphins priced at +800.
Passing YardsNext game · Miami DolphinsO 149.5 -1667
149.5posted line · passing yds
Joe Burrow has a live NFL passing yards market for Miami Dolphins: over 149.5 passing yds priced at -1667.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 04 Oct 26 |
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Pass Completions |
24.5 |
Under |
+100 |
✗ MISS |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Passing Touchdowns |
1.5 |
Under |
+174 |
✓ HIT |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Rushing Yards |
8.5 |
Under |
-111 |
✓ HIT |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Rushing Attempts (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Joe Burrow (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Joe Burrow is Over 0.5 on Interceptions Thrown. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.8% on this pick. Their next game is Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins on Sunday 11 October at Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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