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NFL

Zay Flowers

BAL

Value call

Zay Flowers has one live pick today: over 69.5 receiving yards that pays $242 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
43 in 100
Predicted
77.9 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 42.8% · before adjusting for past results 61.2% · the book's price implies 41.3% · gap +1.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Cleveland · Indoor
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Zay Flowers
over 69.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 69.5 +142 (2.42) · $100→$242
Value call
LEANWins about 43 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$24.20 Odds+142
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zay Flowers is Over 69.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 43 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 43%, the price says 41%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 23, 5:01AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Flowers brought in six of 11 targets for 66 yards and rushed once for one yard in the Ravens' 13-10 loss to the Browns on Sunday.
updated Oct 19, 5:39AM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)61.2%42.8%41.3%2.42+19.8%

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AI Analysis

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Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (Alt) (+142)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Zay Flowers has a solid chance to rack up receiving yards against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have struggled a bit on their home turf, winning just about half of their games as home underdogs since 2021. Plus, their quarterback has been under a lot of pressure lately, facing extra rushers quite often, which can make it tough for him to connect with receivers. The Ravens' offense has shown they can make big plays, and Flowers has the talent to shine in this matchup. While the Browns are tough to beat at home, the risk here is how close the teams are overall. Still, the numbers suggest Flowers can go over 69.5 receiving yards, making this a good bet to consider.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (20 picks) 75.0% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD31 lines trackedNo line posted
46%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked31

Zay Flowers's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 31 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 46%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards2 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–4.5model over67%tips tracked2

Zay Flowers's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 4.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards70 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–89.5model over99%tips tracked70

Zay Flowers's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 70 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions27 lines trackedNo line posted
5.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–7.5model over51%tips tracked27

Zay Flowers's NFL receptions prop has been priced 27 times, typically around a 5.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Zay Flowers average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Oct 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Receiving Yards (Alt) 69.5 Over +142 ✗ MISS
18 Oct 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
18 Oct 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Receiving Yards (Alt) 79.5 Over +221 ✗ MISS
18 Oct 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
18 Oct 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
18 Oct 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zay Flowers (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 75.0% on tracked Zay Flowers picks. The latest model pick for Zay Flowers is Over 69.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.8% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns on Sunday 18 October at Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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