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The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin Herbert is Under 17.5 on Rushing Yards.
On the Rushing Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 63%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +9.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
NFL

Justin Herbert

LAC

+9.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards Under 17.5 -112 (1.89)
+9.9% Edge
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Herbert said Tuesday that a priority during OTAs has been to overhaul his footwork under the direction of new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, Kris Rhim of ESPN reports.
updated Jun 3, 4:20PM UTC · 47d old
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Model Probability
62.8%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+9.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards62.8%—52.9%1.59+9.9%

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AI Analysis

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Justin Herbert (LAC) Under 17.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under 17.5 rushing yards for Justin Herbert is a well-supported bet, primarily due to Herbert's recent performance data. His overall hit rate over the past 5 and 10 games is 0/5 and 1/10 respectively, demonstrating a consistent underperformance in rushing yards. This trend continues at home games, with a hit rate of 0/5 and 1/10 for the last 5 and 10 home games respectively. Additionally, Herbert's current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero, suggesting that he is not currently on a strong rushing trend. Although Herbert has a perfect hit rate against the Vikings, it is based on just one game, which is not a comprehensive sample size. Therefore, the statistical evidence leans heavily towards Herbert rushing for less than 17.5 yards in the upcoming game against the Vikings.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards6 lines trackedNo line posted
17.5typical line · rushing yds
line range16.5–19.5tips tracked6

Justin Herbert's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 6 times, typically around a 17.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Justin Herbert (LAC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin Herbert is Under 17.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.9% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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