Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin Herbert is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 3 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 3%, the price says 4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 7:07PM UTC
NFL
Justin Herbert
LAC
Justin Herbert has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $2,300 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+2200 (23.00) · $100→$2,300
Value call
Las Vegas Raiders
@
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 8:05PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 349 of 542 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Herbert completed 15 of 27 passes for 192 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while adding three carries for two yards in the Chargers' 26-14 loss to the Raiders on Sunday. He also committed three fumbles, with Herbert recovering one and the other two also staying with Los Angeles.
updated Sep 21, 1:28AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
3 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 2.5% · before adjusting for past results 16.4% · the book's price implies 4.4% · gap -1.8%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 16.4% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 23.00 | +12.0% |
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Justin Herbert (LAC) Yes Player last td (+2200)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Los Angeles Chargers play Las Vegas Raiders in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Justin Herbert (LAC) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +2200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $230 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formRushing Yards83 lines trackedNo line posted 19.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–39.5model over63%tips tracked83
Justin Herbert's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 83 times, typically around a 19.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD11 lines trackedNo line posted
32%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked11
Justin Herbert's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 11 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 32%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Passing Yards10 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range149.5–149.5model over95%tips tracked10
Justin Herbert's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 10 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 20 Sep 26 |
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers |
Interceptions Thrown |
0.5 |
Under |
-179 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
149.5 |
Over |
-1250 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers |
Interceptions Thrown (Alt) |
1.5 |
Over |
+890 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers |
Interceptions Thrown (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers |
Interceptions Thrown |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Justin Herbert (LAC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin Herbert is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.0% on this pick. Their next game is Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday 20 September at Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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