NFL
NFL Week 1 Predictions & Best Bets
Our model's one best bet for every NFL game in week 1 (Sep 10–14) — plain English, real prices, and every pick graded in public afterwards.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET
Our pick: Seattle Seahawks (moneyline 3 way q1)+110
LEAN — about a 1 in 2 chance by our numbers
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET
Our pick: Los Angeles Rams -0.5 (spreads q1)+110
LEAN — about a 1 in 2 chance by our numbers
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Our pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (point spread)-115
HIGH — about a 1 in 1 chance by our numbers
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Our pick: Tennessee Titans -2.5 (point spread)-105
HIGH — about a 1 in 1 chance by our numbers
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Our pick: Chicago Bears -2.5 (point spread)-118
LEAN — about a 1 in 2 chance by our numbers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Our pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (point spread)-110
HIGH — about a 1 in 1 chance by our numbers
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Our pick: Over 49.5 (total points)-105
LEAN — about a 1 in 2 chance by our numbers
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Our pick: Over 44.5 (total points)-110
LEAN — about a 1 in 2 chance by our numbers
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Our pick: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (point spread)-112
LEAN — about a 1 in 2 chance by our numbers
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Our pick: Cleveland Browns (to win)+300
LONG-SHOT — about a 1 in 4 chance by our numbers
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
Our pick: Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 (point spread)-110
HIGH — about a 1 in 1 chance by our numbers
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
Our pick: Arizona Cardinals (to win)+400
LONG-SHOT — about a 1 in 4 chance by our numbers
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
Our pick: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (point spread)-110
HIGH — about a 1 in 1 chance by our numbers
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
Our pick: Under 45.5 (total points)-110
HIGH — about a 1 in 2 chance by our numbers
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Sun Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET
Our pick: Under 23.5 (totals h2)-110
LEAN — about a 1 in 2 chance by our numbers
Questions people ask
What are the best NFL bets for week 1?
Our model picked one best bet in each of the 15 games it priced for week 1 (Sep 10–14). They are all on this page with the price and how confident the model is, in plain words.
Are these picks free?
Yes. Every pick on this page is free, no signup. We grade every published pick in public afterwards — wins and losses.
When do NFL week 1 picks come out?
A day or two before each game, once the betting markets for it are priced. The page fills up across the week (Sep 10–14).