Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bo Nix is Under 4.5 on Rushing Attempts.
On Rushing Attempts, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 71%, the price says 51%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 1, 8:29PM UTC
NFL
Bo Nix
DEN
Bo Nix has one live pick today: Rushing Attempts Under 4.5 that pays $195 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Attempts
Under 4.5
-105 (1.95) · $100→$195
Value call
Denver Broncos
@
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: 226 of 421 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Nix completed 17 of 34 passes for 186 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 30-26 win over the Rams. He also rushed four times for seven yards and a touchdown in addition to throwing two successful two-point conversions.
updated Sep 28, 4:27AM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
3.5 Rushing Attempts
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 70.8% · the book's price implies 51.3% · gap +19.5%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Attempts | 70.8% | — | 51.3% | 2.07 | +19.5% |
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Bo Nix (DEN) Under 4.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
San Francisco 49ers play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Bo Nix (DEN) Under 4.5 Rushing Attempts. It was priced at -105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Bo Nix's lines for Sun 4 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Rushing Attempts 4.5
Bo Nix's rushing attempts line is 4.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5
Bo Nix's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 169.5
Bo Nix's passing yards (alt) line is 169.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 159.5
Bo Nix's passing yards (alt) line is 159.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5
Bo Nix's passing yards (alt) line is 149.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 124.5
Bo Nix's passing yards (alt) line is 124.5.
Passing Touchdowns 1.5
Bo Nix's passing touchdowns line is 1.5.
Interceptions Thrown 0.5
Bo Nix's interceptions thrown line is 0.5.
Betting angles
1 market livePassing YardsNext game · San Francisco 49ersO 149.5 -714
149.5posted line · passing yds
Bo Nix has a live NFL passing yards market for San Francisco 49ers: over 149.5 passing yds priced at -714.
Rushing Yards10 lines trackedNo line posted 20.5typical line · rushing yds
line range20.5–22.5tips tracked10
Bo Nix's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 10 times, typically around a 20.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 28 Sep 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
124.5 |
Over |
-1429 |
✓ HIT |
| 28 Sep 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos |
Passing Yards |
211.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 28 Sep 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos |
Passing Yards |
210.5 |
Under |
-112 |
✓ HIT |
| 28 Sep 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos |
Pass Completions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 28 Sep 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos |
Pass + Rush Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 28 Sep 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos |
Interceptions Thrown |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Bo Nix (DEN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bo Nix is Under 4.5 on Rushing Attempts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.5% on this pick. Their next game is Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers on Sunday 4 October at San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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