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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bo Nix is Under 20.5 on Rushing Yards.
On the Rushing Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 69%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +16.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:16PM UTC
NFL

Bo Nix

DEN

+16.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards Under 20.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
+16.3% Edge
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
Denver · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said Nix's deep accuracy has been "off the charts" at training camp, Nick Kosmider of The Athletic reports.
updated Aug 11, 2:27PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
69.2%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+16.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards69.2%—52.9%1.45+16.3%

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AI Analysis

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Bo Nix (DEN) Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data strongly supports a bet on Bo Nix to rush for under 20.5 yards in the upcoming Denver Broncos versus Cincinnati Bengals game. Firstly, Nix's recent performance has shown a consistent inability to reach this number. He has not hit the over in his last 3 games overall, last 3 home games, or the last game against Cincinnati. This downward trend extends even further, with Nix failing to hit the over in 5 consecutive games overall. Additionally, his overall hit rate is low. Out of 21 total games, he's only surpassed 20.5 rushing yards 7 times. His home hit rate is only marginally better at 4/9. Against Cincinnati, he has never managed to surpass this mark. Given these data points and current hit streaks of zero in all categories, the under 20.5 for Bo Nix's rushing yards is a solid bet. The model edge of 0.1625 also indicates a potential value

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards10 lines trackedNo line posted
20.5typical line · rushing yds
line range20.5–22.5tips tracked10

Bo Nix's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 10 times, typically around a 20.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Bo Nix (DEN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bo Nix is Under 20.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.3% on this pick. Their next game is Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos at Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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