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NFL

Deshaun Watson

CLE

Value call

Deshaun Watson has one live pick today: over 149.5 passing yards that pays $124 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
93 in 100
Predicted
203.5 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 93.4% · before adjusting for past results 95.8% · the book's price implies 80.7% · gap +12.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Cleveland · Indoor
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Deshaun Watson
over 149.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 149.5 -417 (1.24) · $100→$124
Value call
HIGHWins about 93 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$12.40 Odds-417
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Deshaun Watson is Over 149.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 93%, the price says 81%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 18, 5:57PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Watson completed 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown while rushing six times for 40 yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets. He also lost a fumble.
updated Oct 11, 11:33PM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)95.8%93.4%80.7%1.24+15.1%

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AI Analysis

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Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens: Deshaun Watson Over 149.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-500)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Cleveland is buzzing as they welcome the Baltimore Ravens, and Deshaun Watson is looking to shine. Watson has seen a lot of pressure lately, with defenders coming at him more often than most quarterbacks. This means he needs to throw quickly, and with the Ravens' defense focusing on the run, he could find opportunities to rack up passing yards. The conditions are right for him to hit over 149.5 yards. The Browns have had some success when playing at home, especially as underdogs. Although they have struggled on artificial turf, they usually perform better on grass. It's worth noting that Watson has faced extra pressure in his last games, which could lead to mixed results. Still, the numbers suggest he has a strong chance to go over that mark today.

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Pick History & Track Record

Deshaun Watson's lines for Sun 18 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5

Deshaun Watson's passing yards (alt) line is 149.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 159.5

Deshaun Watson's passing yards (alt) line is 159.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 169.5

Deshaun Watson's passing yards (alt) line is 169.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5

Deshaun Watson's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 124.5

Deshaun Watson's passing yards (alt) line is 124.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5

Deshaun Watson's passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.

Rushing Attempts (Alt) 7.5

Deshaun Watson's rushing attempts (alt) line is 7.5.

Rushing Attempts 6.5

Deshaun Watson's rushing attempts line is 6.5.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Passing Yards100 lines trackedNo line posted
124.5typical line · passing yds
line range99.5–206.5model over97%tips tracked100

Deshaun Watson's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 100 times, typically around a 124.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD10 lines trackedNo line posted
21%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked10

Deshaun Watson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 10 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 21%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards68 lines trackedNo line posted
9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–39.5model over94%tips tracked68

Deshaun Watson's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 68 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Deshaun Watson average?How many rushing yards does Deshaun Watson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Deshaun Watson (CLE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Deshaun Watson is Over 149.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.1% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns on Sunday 18 October at Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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