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Is your bet +EV? Find out in one number.
Enter your odds, your estimate of the true win probability, and your stake. We turn gut feel into hard maths — your expected value in dollars and percent, instantly.
Expected Value Calculator
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EV = (win% × profit) − (lose% × stake). "Your edge" compares your probability to the price's implied probability. If it's positive, the bet is +EV.
Don't know the true probability? Our model does.
BetBetter's calibrated model estimates the real win chance for every market and surfaces the +EV ones for you. See tonight's edges — free, no card.
How to read your result
01
Enter the price
Type the odds you'd actually take and pick the format — decimal, American or fractional.
02
Add your true probability
Your honest estimate of how often this wins. The market's no-vig price is a fair starting point.
03
Check the verdict
Green and positive means the bet profits long term. Your edge shows how much your read beats the price.
Worked example · the default above
Odds 2.10 · win prob 50% · stake $100
EV = 0.50 × $110 profit − 0.50 × $100 stake
EV = +$5.00 (+5.0% of stake)
Implied prob is 47.6%, so your 2.4% edge makes it +EV.
Expected value — quick answers
What is +EV?
A bet whose average outcome is a profit if repeated many times. It's the only thing that matters long term — win rate alone doesn't.
How do I get my win probability?
Use the fair no-vig price as the market's estimate, or a calibrated model. If your probability beats the fair implied probability, you have +EV.
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