Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lamar Jackson is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 3 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 3%, the price says 9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:02PM UTC
NFL
Lamar Jackson
BAL
Lamar Jackson has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $1,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+1000 (11.00) · $100→$1,100
Value call
New Orleans Saints
@
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Jackson completed 21 of 31 passes for 235 yards and a touchdown and an interception while adding 34 rushing yards on four carries in Sunday's 24-17 loss to the Saints.
updated Sep 20, 8:46PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
3 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 2.9% · before adjusting for past results 17.1% · the book's price implies 9.1% · gap -6.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 17.1% | 2.9% | 9.1% | 11.00 | +8.0% |
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Lamar Jackson (BAL) Yes Player last td (+1000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Baltimore Ravens play New Orleans Saints in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Lamar Jackson (BAL) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +1000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $110 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD9 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked9
Lamar Jackson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 9 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Lamar Jackson (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lamar Jackson is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.0% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens on Sunday 20 September at Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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