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NFL

Lamar Jackson

BAL

Value call

Lamar Jackson has one live pick today: over 5.5 rushing attempts that pays $307 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
39 in 100
Predicted
5.7 rushing attempts
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 38.8% · before adjusting for past results 48.3% · the book's price implies 32.6% · gap +6.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Sun 1 Nov, 1:00 PM ET
Lamar Jackson
over 5.5 rushing attempts
Rushing Attempts (Alt) Over 5.5 +207 (3.07) · $100→$307
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 39 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$30.70 Odds+207
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lamar Jackson is Over 5.5 on Rushing Attempts (Alt).
On Rushing Attempts (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 39 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 39%, the price says 33%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 14, 4:54AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Jackson (thumb) is "doing well" and is expected to be out for "6-to-10 weeks," per head coach Jesse Minter.
updated Nov 13, 2:48PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Attempts (Alt)48.3%38.8%32.6%3.07+15.7%

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AI Analysis

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Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts (Alt) (+174)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Lamar Jackson faces a tough matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who are known for putting pressure on quarterbacks. Jackson has been running a lot, and the Bills struggle to contain mobile QBs. With their defense focused on stopping the pass, it could open up lanes for him to run more than usual. Betting on him to rush over 5.5 times makes sense because he can take advantage of the Bills' aggressive approach. However, the risk is that both teams might be focused on their passing game, with Jackson facing a defense that has seen more rushers than average. This bet feels like a solid chance, but it could go either way on game day.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD9 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked9

Lamar Jackson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 9 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards66 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–219.5model over99%tips tracked66

Lamar Jackson's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 66 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards10 lines trackedNo line posted
31.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–33.5tips tracked10

Lamar Jackson's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 10 times, typically around a 31.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Pass Completions 19.5 Under -106 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Passing Touchdowns 1.5 Under -110 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Rushing Yards 27.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Rushing Attempts (Alt) — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Rushing Attempts — — — Pending
01 Nov 26 Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Rushing Attempts (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lamar Jackson (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lamar Jackson is Over 5.5 on Rushing Attempts (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.7% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills on Sunday 1 November at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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