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Live MLB odds · Model vs implied

Today's MLB Odds, with the value already flagged

Every moneyline, run line, total and team prop in one table — each price shown next to our model probability and the book's implied probability, so the edge is obvious at a glance. Updated live as prices move.

See the verified record → Today's top edges

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Today's odds board

Model probability in green = our edge

Live MLB odds · model probability vs implied probability across bookmakers
Game	Market	Outcome	Odds (Dec / US)	Model Prob	Implied Prob	Prediction
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Moneyline	Philadelphia Phillies	1.82 / -122	79.4%	54.9%	Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)	3.50 / +250	52.5%	28.6%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)	2.64 / +164	61.8%	37.9%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-2.0)	2.92 / +192	57.2%	34.2%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)	2.52 / +152	61.8%	39.7%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-3.0)	3.88 / +288	47.8%	25.8%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)	4.50 / +350	43.1%	22.2%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-4.0)	5.18 / +418	38.6%	19.3%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (1.5)	1.51 / -196	84.3%	66.2%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-1.0)	2.07 / +107	66.2%	48.3%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)	6.00 / +500	34.1%	16.7%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (1.5)	1.49 / -204	84.3%	67.1%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (1.0)	1.56 / -179	81.3%	64.1%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-5.0)	6.95 / +595	29.9%	14.4%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)	7.80 / +680	25.9%	12.8%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (2.5)	1.31 / -323	89.3%	76.3%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (2.0)	1.35 / -286	87.0%	74.1%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (3.5)	1.20 / -500	93.1%	83.3%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (3.0)	1.22 / -455	91.3%	82.0%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (-6.5)	10.00 / +900	18.9%	10.0%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (4.5)	1.13 / -769	95.7%	88.5%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (4.0)	1.13 / -769	94.5%	88.5%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (5.5)	1.08 / -1250	97.5%	92.6%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (6.5)	1.04 / -2500	98.6%	96.2%	2.8
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Total Runs	Under (14.5)	1.19 / -526	85.4%	84.0%	9.9
Jul 2, 4:35 PM @ Pirates @ Phillies	Spread	Philadelphia Phillies (7.5)	1.02 / -5000	99.2%	98.0%	2.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (8.5)	3.00 / +200	62.0%	33.3%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (9.5)	4.00 / +300	53.0%	25.0%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (8.0)	2.49 / +149	66.2%	40.2%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (7.0)	2.02 / +102	74.2%	49.5%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (10.5)	5.20 / +420	43.9%	19.2%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (10.0)	4.13 / +313	48.5%	24.2%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (6.5)	1.85 / -118	77.7%	54.1%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (6.5)	1.83 / -120	77.7%	54.6%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (11.0)	5.61 / +461	39.5%	17.8%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (11.5)	7.00 / +600	35.1%	14.3%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Spread	Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)	4.40 / +340	43.5%	22.7%	2.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Spread	Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)	3.10 / +210	52.9%	32.3%	2.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Spread	Milwaukee Brewers (-3.0)	3.57 / +257	48.1%	28.0%	2.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (5.5)	1.56 / -179	83.9%	64.1%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (6.0)	1.62 / -161	81.0%	61.7%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Spread	Milwaukee Brewers (-4.0)	4.94 / +394	38.9%	20.2%	2.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Spread	Milwaukee Brewers (-2.0)	2.56 / +156	57.5%	39.1%	2.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Spread	Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)	2.26 / +126	62.1%	44.2%	2.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Spread	Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)	6.00 / +500	34.4%	16.7%	2.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Spread	Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)	2.24 / +124	62.1%	44.6%	2.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (12.5)	9.30 / +830	27.1%	10.8%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Spread	Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)	8.50 / +750	26.2%	11.8%	2.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Total Runs	Over (5.0)	1.35 / -286	86.6%	74.1%	9.8
Jul 2, 6:10 PM @ Reds @ Brewers	Moneyline	Milwaukee Brewers	1.53 / -189	77.3%	65.4%	Milwaukee Brewers

Quick answer

What are MLB odds and how do you use them?

MLB odds are the prices sportsbooks offer on baseball markets including moneyline (winner), run line (±1.5 run spread), totals (over/under combined score), and team props. To spot value, convert the odds to implied probability (1 ÷ decimal odds) and compare to your own or a model's estimate. When the model probability is meaningfully higher than the implied probability, the price may offer positive expected value.

                    Quick formula: implied % = 1 ÷ decimal odds.
                    Example: 2.20 = 45.5% implied.
                

What you can do in 30 seconds

Scan the table for your market — moneyline, run line, totals, or props.
Compare model vs implied probability for a pricing mismatch.
Jump to picks or props using the links below for context and reasoning.

Focus

Odds comparison

Across bookmakers

Edge lens

Model vs implied

Value identification

The method behind the numbers

The board pairs each price with two numbers that matter: model probability (what our model estimates should happen) and implied probability (what the bookmaker's odds suggest). Reading them side by side is how you judge pricing in seconds and isolate genuine value from noise.

Read any price in four steps

Pick a market — Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, or a team prop.
Read the price in decimal and American format.
Compare model vs implied — if model probability is higher, the price may be value.
Use the prediction column — moneyline shows the projected winner, other markets show the predicted number.

Value is not a guarantee — it is a pricing mismatch signal. Manage bankroll and avoid overexposure on any single selection.

MLB betting markets explained

Use this table to match a market type to what it means and what to compare.

Market	What it means	What to compare
Moneyline	Pick the outright winner of the game.	Model win probability vs implied probability from the odds.
Run Line	Handicap market, commonly -1.5 or +1.5 runs.	Model margin prediction and how the handicap changes the true win chance.
Totals	Over or under the combined runs line.	Model total runs prediction vs the posted line and odds price.
Team Props	Team-level markets — alt run lines, team totals, specials.	Model output for the specific prop vs the bookmaker's implied probability.

Why model vs implied probability matters

Sportsbooks build margin into every price. Implied probability shows what the market is charging for an outcome. Model probability is an independent estimate. When the gap between them is meaningful, it may indicate positive expected value — but only bet when the margin is large enough to overcome the bookmaker's vig and normal variance.

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Prop markets and value angles.

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MLB Betting Hub

Guides, explanations and the latest analysis.

MLB Betting Guide

Beginner to advanced, every market covered.

Official MLB information: MLB.com. Bet responsibly — outcomes are uncertain and this page is for informational purposes only.

MLB Odds FAQ

Quick answers

What are MLB odds?

MLB odds are the prices sportsbooks offer on baseball outcomes including moneyline (outright winner), run line (1.5-run spread), totals (over/under combined score), and team props. Odds reflect the implied probability of each outcome occurring — converting them to a percentage lets you compare against your own or a model's estimate to identify potential value.

How do I convert MLB odds to implied probability?

For decimal odds, implied probability equals 1 ÷ decimal odds. A price of 1.80 implies approximately 55.6%. A price of 2.20 implies approximately 45.5%. For American odds, convert to decimal first: positive odds use (100 ÷ odds) + 1, negative odds use (|odds| + 100) ÷ |odds|, then apply the same formula.

What is the difference between moneyline and run line?

Moneyline is simply which team wins the game outright — no margin required. The run line adds a fixed 1.5-run spread: the favourite at -1.5 must win by 2 or more runs, and the underdog at +1.5 covers by losing by 1 run or winning outright. Because baseball is low-scoring, this 1.5-run margin significantly changes the implied probability and odds compared to the moneyline on the same game.

What are MLB totals in betting?

MLB totals (over/under) are bets on the combined runs scored by both teams. The sportsbook sets a total runs line and you choose whether the final combined score will go over or under that number. Key inputs affecting totals are starting pitcher quality, park factors (altitude, dimensions), wind direction and speed, and lineup run-scoring rates against the opposing pitcher type. All runs including extra innings count unless you are specifically betting a First 5 Innings total.

How does Bet Better find value in MLB odds?

Bet Better runs Monte Carlo simulations and statistical models to estimate true outcome probabilities for each MLB market. These model probabilities are displayed alongside the bookmaker's implied probability so you can see the gap directly. When model probability is meaningfully higher than implied probability after accounting for the bookmaker's margin (vig), the price may offer positive expected value. Small gaps can be noise — a meaningful margin is typically required before acting on any edge.

How often are MLB odds updated on this page?

This page is designed to reflect the latest available odds from bookmakers as they move. Odds change frequently as starting pitchers are confirmed, lineups are announced, injury news breaks, and betting volume shifts the market. Always verify the current price at your sportsbook before placing a bet, as prices displayed here may have moved since the last update.

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Today's MLB Odds, with the value already flagged

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Why model vs implied probability matters

Keep going

MLB Odds FAQ

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