Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jared Goff is Over 29.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On the Rushing Yards (Alt) market the model assigns a model win probability of 15%, versus the book's implied 3%, for a model edge of +12.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NFL

Jared Goff

DET

+12.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 29.5 +3400 (35.00)
+12.4% Edge
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
15.3%
Implied Probability
2.9%
Model Edge
+12.4%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)15.3%2.9%6.55+12.4%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jared Goff (DET) Over 29.5 Player rush yds alternate (+3400)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Statistically, betting on Jared Goff to rush for over 29.5 yards seems to be a risky proposition. Goff's historical rushing performance paints a clear picture: he has not managed to surpass the 29.5 yard mark in his recent games. This is evidenced by his hit rate, which stands at 0 in his last 3, 5, 10, and 20 overall games, as well as in his last 3, 5, 10, and 20 home games. Specifically, against the Dallas Cowboys, Goff's rushing yards have never exceeded the stipulated 29.5 yard threshold in their previous encounters. Given these statistics, the odds seem heavily stacked against Goff achieving a rushing yard total above 29.5. However, model edge of 0.124 suggests there is a slight statistical advantage for this outcome. It's important to note this doesn't guarantee success, but instead implies there might be overlooked factors potentially favoring

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards2 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range24.5–29.5model over23%tips tracked2

Jared Goff's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Jared Goff (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jared Goff is Over 29.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.4% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks