Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jared Goff is Over 199.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 95 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 95%, the price says 83%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:01PM UTC
NFL
Jared Goff
DET
Jared Goff has one live pick today: Passing Yards (Alt) Over 199.5 that pays $120 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Passing Yards (Alt)
Over 199.5
-500 (1.20) · $100→$120
Value call
New York Jets
@
Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
Sun 27 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Goff completed 26 of 38 passes for 327 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while adding three rushes for seven yards in the Lions' 41-31 loss to the Bills on Thursday. He also committed two fumbles, losing one.
updated Sep 18, 4:12AM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
95 in 100
Predicted
247.1 Passing Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 94.9% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap +11.6%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Yards (Alt) | 94.9% | — | 83.3% | 1.20 | +11.6% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Jared Goff (DET) Over 199.5 Player pass yds alternate (-500)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Detroit Lions play New York Jets in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jared Goff (DET) Over 199.5 Player pass yds alternate. It was priced at -500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Jared Goff's lines for Sun 27 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5
Jared Goff's passing yards (alt) line is 199.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5
Jared Goff's passing yards (alt) line is 189.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5
Jared Goff's passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5
Jared Goff's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.
Passing Yards 258.5
-114 best over price · 2 books
Jared Goff's passing yards line is 258.5, best over price -114 across 2 books.
Passing Yards 256.5
-111 best over price · 3 books
Jared Goff's passing yards line is 256.5, best over price -111 across 3 books.
Passing Touchdowns 1.5
Jared Goff's passing touchdowns line is 1.5.
Pass Completions 23.5
Jared Goff's pass completions line is 23.5.
Betting angles
2 markets livePassing YardsNext game · New York JetsU 258.5 -114
258.5posted line · passing yds
Jared Goff has a live NFL passing yards market for New York Jets: under 258.5 passing yds priced at -114.
Anytime TDNext game · New York JetsAnytime TD +1600
Jared Goff has a live NFL anytime td market for New York Jets priced at +1600.
Rushing Yards9 lines trackedNo line posted 0.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–29.5model over46%tips tracked9
Jared Goff's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 9 times, typically around a 0.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
199.5 |
Over |
-588 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
179.5 |
Over |
-1429 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
174.5 |
Over |
-1250 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
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Jared Goff (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jared Goff is Over 199.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.6% on this pick. Their next game is New York Jets vs Detroit Lions on Sunday 27 September at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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