Matthew Stafford has one live pick today: under 23.5 completed passes that pays $190 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
67 in 100
Predicted
21.6 completed passes
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 67.2% · the book's price implies 52.6% · gap +14.6%.
Latest Model PickFree
Buffalo Bills
@
Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford
under 23.5 completed passes
Pass Completions
Under 23.5
-111 (1.90) · $100→$190
Value call
HIGHWins about 67 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$19.00
Odds-111
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Stafford is Under 23.5 on Pass Completions.
On Pass Completions, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 67%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 9:42PM UTC
Is Matthew Stafford playing on Monday? Yes, on the latest team news. Matthew Stafford is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
UNKNOWN
Stafford completed 32 of 51 passes for 317 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions in Sunday's 24-20 win over the Eagles. He also rushed three times for 10 yards.
updated Oct 4, 9:08PM UTC · 6d old
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pass Completions | 67.2% | — | 52.6% | 2.02 | +14.6% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Matthew Stafford (LA) Under 23.5 Pass Completions (-111)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Los Angeles Rams play Buffalo Bills in the NFL on Tuesday 13 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Matthew Stafford (LA) Under 23.5 Pass Completions. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Matthew Stafford's lines for Tue 13 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Pass Completions 23.5
Matthew Stafford's pass completions line is 23.5.
Passing Touchdowns 2.5
Matthew Stafford's passing touchdowns line is 2.5.
Anytime TD
Matthew Stafford's anytime td line is posted.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 0.5
Matthew Stafford's rushing yards (alt) line is 0.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 14.5
Matthew Stafford's rushing yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 19.5
Matthew Stafford's rushing yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 24.5
Matthew Stafford's rushing yards (alt) line is 24.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 9.5
Matthew Stafford's rushing yards (alt) line is 9.5.
Betting angles
2 markets liveRushing YardsNext game · Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles RamsO 19.5 +1520 19.5posted line · rushing yds
Matthew Stafford has a live NFL rushing yards market for Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams: over 19.5 rushing yds priced at +1520.
Anytime TDNext game · Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles RamsAnytime TD +1700
Matthew Stafford has a live NFL anytime td market for Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams priced at +1700.
Passing Yards32 lines trackedNo line posted
169.5typical line · passing yds
line range149.5–249.5model over99%tips tracked32
Matthew Stafford's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 32 times, typically around a 169.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 04 Oct 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Passing Yards |
249.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✗ MISS |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Passing Yards |
248.5 |
Under |
-111 |
✗ MISS |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Rushing Yards |
0.5 |
Over |
-101 |
✓ HIT |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 04 Oct 26 |
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Matthew Stafford (LA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Stafford is Under 23.5 on Pass Completions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.6% on this pick. Their next game is Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams on Monday 12 October at Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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