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NFL

Matthew Stafford

LA

Value call

Matthew Stafford has one live pick today: over 0.5 rushing yards that pays $226 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
54 in 100
Predicted
7.1 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 53.9% · before adjusting for past results 61.7% · the book's price implies 44.3% · gap +9.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas · Indoor
Sun 25 Oct, 4:25 PM ET
Matthew Stafford
over 0.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards Over 0.5 +126 (2.26) · $100→$226
Value call
LEANWins about 54 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$22.60 Odds+126
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Stafford is Over 0.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 44%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 2:07AM UTC
UNKNOWN
Stafford completed 23 of 29 passes for 195 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and rushed three times for minus-3 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
updated Oct 26, 3:11AM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards61.7%53.9%44.3%2.40+17.5%

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AI Analysis

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Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (+126)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Matthew Stafford has been looking solid lately, showing he can move the ball well in tough situations. With the Las Vegas Raiders' defense struggling against the run, this could open up opportunities for him to get rushing yards. The bet here is for Stafford to rush over 0.5 yards, which seems very doable based on his recent play. The most concrete risk is that he might not need to run if the Rams are scoring easily through the air. Still, our numbers say there's a good chance he hits this mark, especially with the Raiders' defense not being at its best. It's worth a shot as he has shown he can take advantage of the situation when he needs to.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards96 lines trackedNo line posted
0.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–29.5model over62%tips tracked96

Matthew Stafford's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 96 times, typically around a 0.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD37 lines trackedNo line posted
14%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked37

Matthew Stafford's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 37 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 14%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards72 lines trackedNo line posted
199.5typical line · passing yds
line range149.5–253.5model over91%tips tracked72

Matthew Stafford's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 72 times, typically around a 199.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Matthew Stafford average?How many rushing yards does Matthew Stafford average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders Passing Yards 253.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders Pass Completions 23.5 Under -122 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders Interceptions Thrown 0.5 Over +100 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders Rushing Yards — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders Pass Completions — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matthew Stafford (LA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Stafford is Over 0.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.5% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 25 October at Las Vegas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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