Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Stafford is Under 0.5 on Interceptions Thrown.
On Interceptions Thrown, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 58%, the price says 55%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 2:45PM UTC
NFL
Matthew Stafford
LA
Matthew Stafford has one live pick today: Interceptions Thrown Under 0.5 that pays $181 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Interceptions Thrown
Under 0.5
-123 (1.81) · $100→$181
Value call
New York Giants
@
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles · Indoor
Tue 22 Sep, 12:15AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
58 in 100
Predicted
0.3 Interceptions Thrown
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 58.3% · before adjusting for past results 71.2% · the book's price implies 55.3% · gap +3.0%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Interceptions Thrown | 71.2% | 58.3% | 55.3% | 1.92 | +16.0% |
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Matthew Stafford (LA) Under 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-123)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Los Angeles Rams play New York Giants in the NFL on Tuesday 22 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Matthew Stafford (LA) Under 0.5 Interceptions Thrown. It was priced at -123 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Matthew Stafford's lines for Tue 22 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Interceptions Thrown 0.5
Matthew Stafford's interceptions thrown line is 0.5.
Anytime TD
Matthew Stafford's anytime td line is posted.
Total Touchdowns 1.5
Matthew Stafford's total touchdowns line is 1.5.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Matthew Stafford's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Betting angles
1 market liveAnytime TDNext game · New York Giants @ Los Angeles RamsAnytime TD +1600
Matthew Stafford has a live NFL anytime td market for New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams priced at +1600.
Rushing Yards3 lines trackedNo line posted 0.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–24.5tips tracked3
Matthew Stafford's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 0.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Interceptions Thrown |
0.5 |
Over |
+112 |
✓ HIT |
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Interceptions Thrown (Alt) |
1.5 |
Over |
+535 |
✗ MISS |
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Interceptions Thrown (Alt) |
0.5 |
Over |
+113 |
✓ HIT |
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Passing Touchdowns |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 11 Sep 26 |
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams |
Rushing Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Matthew Stafford (LA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Stafford is Under 0.5 on Interceptions Thrown. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.0% on this pick. Their next game is New York Giants vs Los Angeles Rams on Tuesday 22 September at Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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