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The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Stafford is Over 24.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On the Rushing Yards (Alt) market the model assigns a model win probability of 23%, versus the book's implied 4%, for a model edge of +18.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:06PM UTC
NFL

Matthew Stafford

LA

+18.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 24.5 +2200 (23.00)
+18.8% Edge
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Stafford and the Rams agreed on a one-year, $55 million contract extension Thursday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
updated May 21, 11:34PM UTC · 60d old
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Model Probability
23.2%
Implied Probability
4.4%
Model Edge
+18.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)23.2%—4.4%4.32+18.8%

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AI Analysis

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Matthew Stafford (LA) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate (+2200)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting data indicates that wagering on Matthew Stafford to exceed 24.5 rushing yards in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market is a highly speculative bet. Stafford's historical performance does not support this outcome, as his overall hit rate for this specific bet is 0/47, his hit rate at home games is 0/24, and his hit rate against the San Francisco 49ers is 0/5. Even when considering games against the 49ers at home, his hit rate remains 0/3. Furthermore, Stafford's performance over short and long-term periods, represented by his hit rates over the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, also consistently lands at zero. Therefore, based on the historical data and Stafford's past performances, the likelihood of him exceeding 24.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game against the 49ers seems statistically improbable.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards1 line trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
model over23%tips tracked1

Matthew Stafford's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Matthew Stafford (LA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Stafford is Over 24.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.8% on this pick. Their next game is San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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