Patterns that held up
We took every call on our free board that has already been settled and sorted it into groups: the sport, the type of bet, which side we were on, how sure the model was, and how good the price looked. Then we checked which groups finished in front. Those are below. Nobody had money on any of them — the free board is free to read and isn't a list of bets we placed.
Read this first
We checked 157 different groups. 6 of them finished in front.
That sounds better than it is. The bar we use is one that a group with no real advantage at all still gets over about one time in ten, just on luck. So out of 157 groups, luck on its own would be expected to leave roughly 16 of them looking good.
That's as many as — or more than — actually held up here. So we can't tell you any of these are a real advantage. Treat this page as a list of things worth watching, and nothing more. We'd rather say that than sell you a number.
MLB — Total Runs, going over
when it's close to a coin flip and the price was a lot better than expected.
MLB
Total Runs
+$3,521
$50 a bet would've finished
when the model is confident and the price was a little better than expected.
WNBA
Alt Spread
+$1,894
$50 a bet would've finished
when it's close to a coin flip and the price was noticeably better than expected.
MLB
Spread
+$3,619
$50 a bet would've finished
when the model leans one way and the price was a little better than expected.
WNBA
Alt Spread
+$705
$50 a bet would've finished
when the model leans one way and the price was a little better than expected.
MLB
Spread
+$1,046
$50 a bet would've finished
MLB — Total Runs, going under
when it's close to a coin flip and the price was a lot better than expected.
MLB
Total Runs
+$1,503
$50 a bet would've finished
Common questions
What is this page actually showing?
Every settled call on our free board, sorted into groups — the sport, the type of bet, which side we were on, how sure the model was, and how good the price looked. The groups that finished in front are the ones listed. Nobody had money on any of it.
Does finishing in front mean it'll keep winning?
No, and that's the point of the box at the top. We check a lot of groups, and our bar is one a group with no real advantage still gets over about one time in ten. So a few would look good even if none of them meant anything. We publish how many we checked and how many luck alone would produce, so you can judge it. Watch these; don't bank on them. Track your own results on the bet tracker.
How do you keep broken results out?
A group needs at least 50 settled calls before we'll judge it. We also throw out whole markets whose numbers look impossible — winning over 80% outright, or beating their own odds by more than eight points across a hundred-plus calls — and any single group winning over 90% of the time. Those are settlement faults, not advantages. See the whole board on the free board scorecard.
How we worked this out. Every settled call on our free board, grouped by sport, bet type, side, how sure the model was, and how far the price sat from what the model expected. Same size bet on every call — $50, one unit — at the odds that were showing. A group needs at least
50 settled calls before we'll judge it, and it only makes the list if the
pessimistic end of its range — after pulling it back toward its own market's average, so one hot run can't buy its way in — is still in front. We exclude whole markets whose results look impossible (winning over 80% outright, or beating their own odds by more than eight points across 100+ calls) and any group winning over 90% of the time; those are settlement faults, not advantages. Note that this page does look at player bets and totals, which the
free board scorecard deliberately holds back — those are the markets whose grading we're still hardening, so treat anything here that sits in one of them with extra caution.
These are survivors of a search, not proven strategies — the box at the top of this page tells you how many groups were checked and how many luck alone would leave looking good. Dollar figures are what $50 a call
would have finished at; nobody was staked. Past results don't guarantee future ones, and any group here can lose for months. This is information, not betting advice. 18+ (21+ where required). Please gamble responsibly.