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Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses

Proven Systems

Every pick we've graded, broken down by sport, market, side, model-confidence band and edge band. A combination only appears here if its conservative floor — the pessimistic end of its range, after shrinking toward its market's own average — is still profitable, so a single lucky run can't buy its way in. Markets our settlement can't grade cleanly are excluded entirely. These are historical settled results, not predictions — and never a guarantee.

4
Proven combinations
906
Graded bets behind them
+12.7%
Avg ROI
+16.0%
Best ROI
All sports
All types Team / Game Player props Multis
Total Runs · Over · under 60% confidence · under 10% edge
ROI+15.7%
MLB Total Runs
+15.7%
Return on turnover
+8.7%
Conservative floor
41.9%
Strike rate
730
Settled bets
Total Runs · Over · 70-85% confidence · 10-15% edge
ROI+16.0%
MLB Total Runs
+16.0%
Return on turnover
+5.9%
Conservative floor
75.3%
Strike rate
73
Settled bets
Batter - Runs Scored · Under · 85%+ confidence · under 10% edge
ROI+9.7%
MLB Batter - Runs Scored
+9.7%
Return on turnover
+3.4%
Conservative floor
90.6%
Strike rate
53
Settled bets
Rebounds · Under · 85%+ confidence · 10-15% edge
ROI+9.4%
NBA Rebounds
+9.4%
Return on turnover
+2.3%
Conservative floor
90%
Strike rate
50
Settled bets

Proven systems — common questions

What is a "system"?

A rules-based, repeatable way to bet — a sport, market and odds band with a minimum model edge. We backtest each on our settled results and show its real ROI, hit rate and graded-bet count. A disciplined framework, not a tip.

Are these guaranteed to win?

No — nothing in betting is. A system that was profitable in a backtest can still lose over any future run because of variance. We show the sample size so you can judge the evidence, and we never use guaranteed-win language. Track your own results on the bet tracker.

How do you pick which to show?

A system needs at least 100 graded bets and a believable ROI to appear. We hide tiny-sample flukes and implausibly high ROI that would come from settlement noise, not a real edge — fewer honest systems beat flattering broken ones. See the raw record on the model scorecard.

More free tools: Today's Picks · Model Scorecard · Verified Record · Value Finder · Bet Tracker · Line Shopping
Method: each system is a rules-based filter (sport · market · odds band · minimum model edge) applied to our settled-results database and staked flat; ROI = profit ÷ total staked. A system only appears with ≥ 100 graded bets and an ROI between 3% and 60% — we hide tiny samples and implausibly high ROI (a sign of settlement noise, not edge). Past performance does not guarantee future results; every system carries variance, and a profitable backtest can lose over any future stretch. This is analytics and information, not betting advice. 18+ (21+ where required). Please gamble responsibly.
These are settled — today is live

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

Every pick here was logged before tip-off and graded in public — win or loss. Today's board shows the ones the model is most confident are mispriced.

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