NFL
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL
Michael Penix Jr. has one live pick today: over 179.5 passing yards that pays $136 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
93 in 100
Predicted
225.7 passing yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 92.6% · the book's price implies 73.5% · gap +19.1%.
Latest Model PickFree
Kansas City Chiefs
@
Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr.
over 179.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt)
Over 179.5
-278 (1.36) · $100→$136
Value call
HIGHWins about 93 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$13.60
Odds-278
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Penix Jr. is Over 179.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 93%, the price says 74%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 14, 4:10PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Is Michael Penix Jr. playing tomorrow? Yes, on the latest team news. Michael Penix Jr. is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
UNKNOWN
Penix completed 20 of 31 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown with an interception in Sunday's 34-17 loss to Cincinnati. He added 50 rushing yards on three carries.
updated Nov 8, 7:58PM UTC · 5d old
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Yards (Alt) | 92.6% | — | 73.5% | 1.36 | +19.1% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Over 179.5 Player pass yds alternate (-278)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Atlanta Falcons play Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sunday 15 November 2026. The bet we are looking at is Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Over 179.5 Player pass yds alternate. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Michael Penix Jr.'s lines for Sun 15 Nov
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards (alt) line is 189.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 169.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards (alt) line is 169.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards (alt) line is 199.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 159.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards (alt) line is 159.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 209.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards (alt) line is 209.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards (alt) line is 149.5.
Betting angles
3 markets livePassing YardsNext game · Kansas City ChiefsO 179.5 -278
179.5posted line · passing yds
Michael Penix Jr. has a live NFL passing yards market for Kansas City Chiefs: over 179.5 passing yds priced at -278.
Rushing YardsNext game · Kansas City ChiefsU 8.5 -116 8.5posted line · rushing yds
Michael Penix Jr. has a live NFL rushing yards market for Kansas City Chiefs: under 8.5 rushing yds priced at -116.
Anytime TDNext game · Kansas City ChiefsAnytime TD +1100
Michael Penix Jr. has a live NFL anytime td market for Kansas City Chiefs priced at +1100.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 08 Nov 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
159.5 |
Over |
-625 |
✓ HIT |
| 08 Nov 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
149.5 |
Over |
-769 |
✓ HIT |
| 08 Nov 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 08 Nov 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 08 Nov 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 08 Nov 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Penix Jr. is Over 179.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.1% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons on Sunday 15 November at Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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