Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Penix Jr. is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns.
On Passing Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 62%, the price says 61%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 4, 11:47AM UTC
NFL
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL
Michael Penix Jr. has one live pick today: Passing Touchdowns Under 1.5 that pays $165 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Passing Touchdowns
Under 1.5
-154 (1.65) · $100→$165
Value call
Atlanta Falcons
@
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans · Indoor
Tue 6 Oct, 12:15AM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Penix completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards with one touchdown and one interception while rushing twice for minus-2 yards in the Falcons' 35-14 win over the Packers on Thursday. He also threw a two-point conversion pass.
updated Sep 25, 4:27AM UTC · 9d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
62 in 100
Predicted
1.3 Passing Touchdowns
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 62.3% · the book's price implies 60.6% · gap +1.7%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Touchdowns | 62.3% | — | 60.6% | 1.75 | +1.7% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-154)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
New Orleans Saints play Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Tuesday 6 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at -154 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Michael Penix Jr.'s lines for Tue 6 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Touchdowns 1.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing touchdowns line is 1.5.
Pass Completions 20.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s pass completions line is 20.5.
Anytime TD
+1050 best over price · 14 books
Michael Penix Jr.'s anytime td line is posted, best over price +1050 across 14 books.
Interceptions Thrown 0.5
Michael Penix Jr.'s interceptions thrown line is 0.5.
Betting angles
1 market liveAnytime TDNext game · New Orleans SaintsAnytime TD +900
Michael Penix Jr. has a live NFL anytime td market for New Orleans Saints priced at +900.
Rushing Yards26 lines trackedNo line posted 9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–29.5model over56%tips tracked26
Michael Penix Jr.'s NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 26 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Penix Jr. is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints on Tuesday 6 October at New Orleans. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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