Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tony Pollard is Over 4.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 4 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 4%, the price says 5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 9:36PM UTC
NFL
Tony Pollard
TEN
Tony Pollard has one live pick today: Receptions (Alt) Over 4.5 that pays $1,980 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 4.5
+1880 (19.80) · $100→$1,980
Value call
Philadelphia Eagles
@
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Pollard rushed seven times for 35 yards while catching one of two targets for minus-1 yard in Sunday's 23-10 loss to the Jets.
updated Sep 14, 12:57AM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
4 in 100
Predicted
2.1 Receptions (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 4.3% · before adjusting for past results 6.8% · the book's price implies 5.1% · gap -0.8%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 19.80 | +1.7% |
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Tony Pollard (TEN) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate (+1880)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Tennessee Titans play Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tony Pollard (TEN) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +1880 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $198 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD3 lines trackedNo line posted
44%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked3
Tony Pollard's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 3 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 44%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards68 lines trackedNo line posted 39.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–59.5model over22%tips tracked68
Tony Pollard's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 68 times, typically around a 39.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Rushing Yards90 lines trackedNo line posted 19.5typical line · rushing yds
line range19.5–69.5model over99%tips tracked90
Tony Pollard's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 90 times, typically around a 19.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions37 lines trackedNo line posted 0.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–4.5model over93%tips tracked37
Tony Pollard's NFL receptions prop has been priced 37 times, typically around a 0.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Tony Pollard (TEN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tony Pollard is Over 4.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans on Sunday 20 September at Tennessee. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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