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NFL

Drake Maye

NE

Value call

Drake Maye has one live pick today: under 29.5 rushing yards that pays $192 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
58 in 100
Predicted
25.3 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 57.7% · before adjusting for past results 67.3% · the book's price implies 52.1% · gap +5.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Chicago · Indoor
Thu 22 Oct, 8:15 PM ET
Drake Maye
under 29.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards Under 29.5 -109 (1.92) · $100→$192
Value call
LEANWins about 58 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.20 Odds-109
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Drake Maye is Under 29.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 58%, the price says 52%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 3:56AM UTC
UNKNOWN
Maye completed 24 of 31 passes for 321 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding four rushes for 26 yards and another score in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday.
updated Oct 23, 3:42AM UTC · 8d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards67.3%57.7%52.1%2.03+15.2%

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AI Analysis

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Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots: Drake Maye Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Drake Maye has been facing a lot of extra pressure from defenders lately, which makes it hard for him to find running room. In his last season, he often struggled when the defense sent more rushers than usual, which happened a lot. On top of that, the Bears have shown they get better results from passing plays rather than running, so it makes sense they might not rely heavily on Maye's rushing. Betting on Drake Maye to have under 29.5 rushing yards feels like a solid choice. The Patriots have been pretty tough against the run, and they know how to keep quarterbacks in check. The risk here is that if the game turns into a scramble, he could get more rushing yards than expected, but overall, the numbers look good for this pick.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)
Overall Hit Rate (20 picks) 60.0% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD12 lines trackedNo line posted
43%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked12

Drake Maye's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 12 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 43%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards252 lines trackedNo line posted
169.5typical line · passing yds
line range149.5–253.5model over94%tips tracked252

Drake Maye's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 252 times, typically around a 169.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards27 lines trackedNo line posted
27.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–32.5tips tracked27

Drake Maye's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 27 times, typically around a 27.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Drake Maye average?How many rushing yards does Drake Maye average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Rushing Yards 29.5 Under -109 ✓ HIT
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Rushing Yards 28.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Rushing Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Drake Maye (NE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 60.0% on tracked Drake Maye picks. The latest model pick for Drake Maye is Under 29.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.2% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears on Thursday 22 October at Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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