AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface the picks where the model and the bookmakers disagree most with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

How are AFL picks ordered?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. The strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game's list.

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Today's AFL Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Game

Q: What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). All are displayed within each matchup, ranked so the strongest picks surface first.

Q: How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can change the numbers. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

Q: What makes something a pick here?

A pick happens when the model's number and the bookmaker's price disagree. The model works out how likely each result really is; when that chance is clearly higher than the price is giving credit for, the gap is what makes it a pick — and the bigger the gap, the stronger the pick. Finding those gaps consistently is the whole method.

Q: Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. Risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2-3 high-confidence selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal picks. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Q: Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Every AFL game coming up, graded and ranked best first. All 1 are below, top pick free.

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Today's AFL picks

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Best AFL bet today: Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers: Under Total Points H1 94.5 at -112, high confidence. Fremantle Dockers are going up against the Brisbane Lions, and both teams have shown they can struggle to score when they face strong defenses. 1 game on the board.

The one we'd back first · Brisbane Lions v Fremantle Dockers

Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers: Under Total Points H1 94.5 -112

Our confidenceHigh

Chance to win60.5%

$50 returns$94.50

The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each game below

Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers: Under Total Points H1 94.5	High60% chance	-112
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Disposals 16.5	Lean48% chance	—
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Disposals 10.5	Lean49% chance	—
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Goals 0.5	Lean57% chance	—
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Disposals 9.5	High61% chance	—
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Total Points Q1 47.5	Lean56% chance	—
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Total Points Q3 48.5	Lean58% chance	—
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Marks 1.5	High69% chance	—
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Disposals 20.5	Lean47% chance	—
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Disposals 13.5	Lean53% chance	—
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Team Total Points H1 45.5	Lean56% chance	—
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE	Total Points Q4 46.5	Lean54% chance	—

High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

59 more picks on the board

AFL • BRI vs. FRE 2026-09-26 04:30 •

Brisbane Lions Away

vs.

Home Fremantle Dockers

Last 5Brisbane LionsWWLWWFremantle DockersWWLLW

Full preview: Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers →

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers: Under Total Points H1 94.5

Chance to win 60.5%

The price says 52.9%

Best price -112

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Under 94.5 Total Points H1 (-112)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers are going up against the Brisbane Lions, and both teams have shown they can struggle to score when they face strong defenses. With the Dockers having a rest disadvantage and the Lions not traveling far, the game could be more about defense than offense. Our numbers suggest that the total points will be under 94.5, which feels like a solid bet. The combined score is expected to be around 83.1, showing a good chance for this under bet. One risk to consider is that both teams are close in ladder points, so a tight game could lead to unexpected scoring. Still, it seems likely that the defenses will shine tonight at the MCG.

Jaspa Fletcher Disposals 16.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Oscar McDonald Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Conor McKenna Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Noah Answerth Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Total Points Q1 47.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Total Points Q3 48.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Caleb Serong Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Jordan Clark Disposals 20.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Cam Rayner Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Team Total Points H1 45.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Total Points Q4 46.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Jordan Clark Kicks 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Total Points Q2 46.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Josh Dunkley Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Karl Worner Disposals 15.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Alex Pearce Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Shai Bolton Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Bruce Reville Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Matthew Johnson Disposals 15.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Jordan Clark Fantasy 74.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Noah Answerth Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Team Total Points Q1 22.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Shai Bolton Disposals 19.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Karl Worner Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Darcy Gardiner Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Harris Andrews Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Michael Frederick Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Josh Dunkley Fantasy 89.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Judd McVee Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Logan Morris Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Murphy Reid Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Josh Treacy Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Team Total Points H1 47.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Kai Lohmann Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Jordan Clark Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Josh Dunkley Disposals 20.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Kai Lohmann Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Cam Rayner Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Luke Jackson Handballs 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Matthew Johnson Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Oscar McDonald Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Isaiah Dudley Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Darcy Wilmot Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Karl Worner Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Matthew Johnson Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Mason Cox Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brandon Walker Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Caleb Serong Fantasy 79.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Lachie Neale Handballs 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Spread 5.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Team Total Points Q1 23.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Kai Lohmann Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Jaspa Fletcher Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Shai Bolton Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Andrew Brayshaw Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Caleb Serong Handballs 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Zac Bailey Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Neil Erasmus Disposals 14.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

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Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference

Market	What it means	Best used for
Moneyline	Which team wins the match outright.	Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread)	Win by more than a handicap margin.	When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals	Over or under the combined match score.	Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props	Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks.	Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.

Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.

Want every pick, graded and sized? One plan unlocks the full board — every league, every day.

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Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are our model's call on which side to back in an AFL game. The model reads past results and the current bookmaker prices, then names the side it rates best and says why in plain words.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

This page is the full list, and best bets is the short list. Picks cover every AFL game on the card across every market, while best bets keeps only the ones the model rates strongest that day.

What types of AFL picks are available?

We post AFL picks on who wins, the line, total points, and player markets like disposals and goals. Game and player markets sit together inside each match, with the strongest pick at the top.

How often are AFL picks updated?

They refresh through the day, and again whenever team news or the bookmaker prices move. Later prices carry more information, so the list you see close to start time is the one to trust.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick is named when our model rates a side better than the bookmaker's price says. The wider that gap, the higher the confidence we show, and confidence is a lean over a long run of bets, never a promise on one game.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes, any pick on this page can be a leg in a multi. Each extra leg makes the whole bet harder to land, so two or three strong legs beat a long list. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No, and nobody can. AFL picks are our best read of what is likely, and good picks still lose, so only ever stake money you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

What time do AFL picks come out?

As soon as the day's games and prices are up. The list is rebuilt several times a day, and again close to start time when team news and prices move, so the version you see nearest kick-off is the one to read. Most of the round lands from Thursday to Sunday.

Do you pick every AFL game?

No. We only name a side when our model likes it more than the price suggests. Some games get nothing at all, and that is on purpose - a quiet day here means there was nothing worth backing, not that something is broken.

What does HIGH confidence mean?

We say it in words, not numbers. HIGH means our model likes the pick the most. LEAN means it likes it, but less. LONG-SHOT means a big price that wins less often and pays more when it lands. Confidence is how it should go over a long run of bets, never a promise on one game.

Do I have to pay to see the AFL picks?

The first pick in every game is free to read, with no signup. The rest unlock with a subscription. Either way every pick we publish is graded in public, wins and losses, on our results page.

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Handy extras

Popular Pages Today

Today's AFL Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Game

Today's AFL picks

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Under 94.5 Total Points H1 (-112)

Bet Better Pro

You're seeing a sample. Pro unlocks every strong pick.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

AFL Picks FAQ

See every AFL play that cleared the model's filter today

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Handy extras

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What you get

Popular Pages Today

Today's AFL picks

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Under 94.5 Total Points H1 (-112)

Bet Better Pro

You're seeing a sample. Pro unlocks every strong pick.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

AFL Picks FAQ

Get free picks in your inbox

See every AFL play that cleared the model's filter today

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

One clear bet
at a time.