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Model v4.0 Updated Daily

Today's AFL Picks — Free Picks for Every Game

Free AFL picks across moneyline, line, totals and player props. Every pick shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.

Every pick, graded and public → Jump to today's picks Tonight's best, every sport

Today's AFL picks

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4 games coming up, and the first 3 picks are free

The one we'd back first · Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle Dockers
Patrick Voss Over 9.5 Disposals (Fremantle) -105
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win71.2%
$50 returns$97.50
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each game below
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle DockersHAW v FRE Patrick Voss Over 9.5 Disposals (Fremantle) High71% chance -105
Carlton Blues v Geelong CatsCAR v GEE Tom Atkins Over 17.5 Disposals (Geelong Cats) High70% chance -105
Brisbane Lions v Sydney SwansBRI v SYD Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (Brisbane Lions) High73% chance -118
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle DockersHAW v FRE High73% chance —
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle DockersHAW v FRE High81% chance —
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle DockersHAW v FRE High82% chance —
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle DockersHAW v FRE High70% chance —
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle DockersHAW v FRE High94% chance —
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle DockersHAW v FRE High92% chance —
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle DockersHAW v FRE High88% chance —
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle DockersHAW v FRE High87% chance —
Hawthorn Hawks v Fremantle DockersHAW v FRE High71% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
171 more picks on the board
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AFL • HAW vs. FRE 2026-09-03 10:10 •
Hawthorn Hawks Away
vs.
Home Fremantle Dockers
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Patrick Voss Over 9.5 Disposals (Fremantle)
Chance to win 71.2%
The price says 51.3%
Best price -105

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Patrick Voss Over 9.5 Disposals (-105)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been strong at home, getting the ball inside 50 more than Hawthorn by about 8 times each game lately. This means they are often on the attack, which should give Patrick Voss plenty of opportunities to rack up disposals. With Fremantle winning 7 of their last 10 games, they are in good form and likely to keep the pressure on. While Hawthorn has also won 7 of their last 10, they struggle a bit in contested situations, losing those battles by a small margin. This could mean more chances for Voss to get the ball. The most concrete risk here is that both teams are closely matched, which could make for a tight game. Still, the numbers suggest Voss has a good chance to go over 9.5 disposals.

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AFL • CAR vs. GEE 2026-09-04 09:40 •
Carlton Blues Away
vs.
Home Geelong Cats
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Tom Atkins Over 17.5 Disposals (Geelong Cats)
Chance to win 70.5%
The price says 51.3%
Best price -105

Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Tom Atkins Over 17.5 Disposals (-105)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Atkins has been showing some solid form lately, and he's been getting a lot of the ball. His recent stats suggest he's likely to collect more than 17 disposals in this game against Carlton. The numbers show he's been averaging quite a bit more than that, and he's been involved in many plays. One thing to note is that this matchup could be closer than expected, which might mean both teams will be fighting hard. If the game turns into a tough battle, it could impact his chances. Still, with the good chance our numbers give for him to go over 17.5 disposals, it's worth a shot.

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AFL • BRI vs. SYD 2026-09-05 05:15 •
Brisbane Lions Away
vs.
Home Sydney Swans
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Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (Brisbane Lions)
Chance to win 73.4%
The price says 54.1%
Best price -118

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

For tonight's game, Conor McKenna needs to score at least one goal for the bet to win. Our numbers show he has a solid chance of doing this based on how he's been playing lately. His stats suggest he's in a good position to find the back of the net, especially with the way both teams are set up to attack. The main risk here is that both teams are closely matched, which can sometimes mean fewer scoring chances. However, McKenna has been involved in key plays, and with the game being at the SCG, he might just get the opportunity he needs to score.

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AFL • WB vs. ADE 2026-09-05 09:35 •
Western Bulldogs Away
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Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which team wins the match outright. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread) Win by more than a handicap margin. When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals Over or under the combined match score. Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.
Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.

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Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL Picks FAQ

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What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. The strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game's list.

What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What does edge mean on this page?

Edge is the difference between the model's estimated probability and the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's posted odds. A pick with a model probability of 65% against odds implying 55% has a +10% edge — meaning the model estimates the true likelihood is 10 percentage points higher than the market is pricing. Consistently finding positive-edge selections is the foundation of long-run profitable betting strategy.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the AFL Multis page.

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No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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