SYSTEM STATUS: Online TREND: HOT TREND: MLB Spread hitting 79.5% over 30 days WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5.5 @ +118) WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 4 @ +400) WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 2.5 @ +750) SYSTEM: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +1238.5 units this season SYSTEM: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +538.1 units this season WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5.5 @ +106) WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 3 @ +750) TREND: HOT TREND: MLB Value hitting 80.0% over 30 days WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5 @ +195) WIN: WON: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ +126) TREND: HOT TREND: MLB Spread hitting 79.5% over 30 days SYSTEM: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +1218.7 units this season TREND: HOT TREND: MLB Value hitting 79.6% over 30 days TREND: HOT TREND: MLB Totals hitting 80.0% over 30 days WIN: WON: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ +124) WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 4.5 @ +240) SYSTEM: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +601.4 units this season WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 3.5 @ +450) SYSTEM: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +601.4 units this season 0.0% EDGE: HOT TREND: MLB Spread hitting 79.5% over 30 days RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5.5 @ +118) RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 4 @ +400) RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 2.5 @ +750) 0.0% EDGE: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +1238.5 units this season 0.0% EDGE: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +538.1 units this season RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5.5 @ +106) RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 3 @ +750) 0.0% EDGE: HOT TREND: MLB Value hitting 80.0% over 30 days RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5 @ +195) RESULT: WON: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ +126) 0.0% EDGE: HOT TREND: MLB Spread hitting 79.5% over 30 days 0.0% EDGE: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +1218.7 units this season 0.0% EDGE: HOT TREND: MLB Value hitting 79.6% over 30 days 0.0% EDGE: HOT TREND: MLB Totals hitting 80.0% over 30 days RESULT: WON: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ +124) RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 4.5 @ +240) 0.0% EDGE: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +601.4 units this season RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 3.5 @ +450) 0.0% EDGE: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +601.4 units this season
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Today's AFL Picks — Edge, Probability & Best Odds

Free AFL picks across moneyline, line, totals and player props. Every selection shows the model's probability, the market edge, and readable reasoning — so you bet on numbers, not noise.

AFLWB vs. SYD 2026-07-03 09:40
Show Picks
Errol Gulden Over 21.5 Disposals (Sydney Swans)
Probability 85.8%
Edge 18.7%
Best Odds -204

Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans) Over 21.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Errol Gulden stands out as a prime candidate for exceeding the 21.5 disposal line against the Western Bulldogs at the SCG. Over his last five home games, Gulden has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 24 disposals. His recent form showcases a knack for consistently finding the ball, with an impressive 6 contested possessions on average. With his slick 72.4% disposal efficiency and a tendency to cover ground effectively with 395 metres gained per game, Gulden is not just a ball magnet but a quality distributor too. Against the Bulldogs, whom he's averaged 25 disposals in his last five outings, Gulden looks poised to continue his stellar form. With a solid hit rate of 9 out of the last 11 home games, Gulden is primed to snag this bet and split the middle with ease.

Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.3%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.3%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 15.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 14.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.0%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Head to Head
Probability
Edge 10.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.7%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Spread
Probability
Edge 7.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.7%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Goals
Probability
Edge 2.7%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
AFLADE vs. WCE 2026-07-03 10:10
Show Picks
Josh Lindsay Over 17.5 Disposals (West Coast Eagles)
Probability 71.4%
Edge 17.6%
Best Odds -116

Josh Lindsay (West Coast Eagles) Over 17.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the West Coast Eagles hosting the Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium, all eyes are on Josh Lindsay to shine in the disposal department. With a model-predicted average of 20.3 disposals, boasting a solid 83.4% disposal efficiency, Lindsay has been a consistent force at home lately. Over his last five home games, he's been a busy bee, averaging 18.2 disposals, showcasing his ability to impact the game through his 13.6 kicks and 4.6 handballs per game. With his recent form and a hit rate of 3 out of the last 4 games at home, Lindsay looks poised to surpass the 17.5 disposal line against the Adelaide Crows. It's a bet that aligns with his trend of solid performances on home turf.

West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 16.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.5%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Goals
Probability
Edge 12.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.4%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.0%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.8%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.1%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.0%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.5%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.5%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.9%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Total Points
Probability
Edge 1.5%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
AFLMEL vs. HAW 2026-07-04 03:15
Show Picks
Jake Melksham Over 0.5 Goals (Melbourne)
Probability 94.6%
Edge 17.1%
Best Odds -345

Jake Melksham (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-345)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to snagging a goal, Jake Melksham is no stranger to making his mark on the field. Despite a slightly lower average in his last five away games, he's been steadily involved in Melbourne's attacking plays, with an average of 1.8 shots at goal and 3.2 score involvements. Facing off against Hawthorn, a team where he's managed to bag 1.5 goals on average in their previous encounters, the stage is set for Melksham to make an impact. With a solid average of 1.6 goals across his last five games overall and a recent hit rate of 15 goals in the last 19 games, the odds are in his favor to split the middle and help secure that Over 0.5 goals bet. Jake Melksham's scoring prowess could well be the key to cashing in on this player prop bet.

Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Total Points
Probability
Edge 17.0%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Goals
Probability
Edge 16.3%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.7%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Goals
Probability
Edge 11.9%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.8%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.3%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
AFLFRE vs. GWS 2026-07-04 03:35
Show Picks
Clayton Oliver Over 28.5 Disposals (GWS GIANTS)
Probability 74.0%
Edge 18.4%
Best Odds -125

Clayton Oliver (GWS GIANTS) Over 28.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Clayton Oliver and his upcoming clash at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. Oliver has been an absolute ball magnet lately, averaging a whopping 29.8 disposals in his last five home games. Facing Fremantle, he's even more lethal, with a solid 28.8 disposals per game against them at home. In terms of form, Oliver is on fire, boasting a current hit streak of 2 at home and an overall hit streak of 3. With an average of 32.6 disposals across all matches, his consistency is undeniable. Plus, his recent stats show he's in prime form, with a stellar 70.7% disposal efficiency and 346.4 meters gained per game. Backed by solid data and recent performance trends, Oliver looks primed to not just hit but smash that 28.5 disposals line against the Dockers. It's a smart bet with a high probability of success.

Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Total Points
Probability
Edge 15.9%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 15.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Goals
Probability
Edge 12.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Goals
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Goals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Goals
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Head to Head
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLCOL vs. GCS 2026-07-04 06:15
Show Picks
Bailey Humphrey Over 0.5 Goals (Gold Coast SUNS)
Probability 91.3%
Edge 18.8%
Best Odds -263

Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Humphrey, the Gold Coast Suns' sharpshooter, is poised to light up the People First Stadium against Collingwood. Despite a recent dry spell, averaging 0.4 goals in his last five games, Bailey's hunger to snag a goal is undeniable. With an impressive 9.0% goal accuracy and averaging 3 shots on goal per game at home, he's a constant threat. In his last five matchups against Collingwood, Bailey has bagged an average of 0.3 goals, showing he's no stranger to splitting the middle against this opponent. His involvement in scoring plays, with 4.8 score involvements per game, demonstrates his impact beyond just kicking goals. With a model predicting him to hit 1.6 goals and an enticing 18.8% edge, betting on Bailey to snag over 0.5 goals is a smart move with great potential returns.

Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Total Points
Probability
Edge 17.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.7%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Spread
Probability
Edge 14.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.7%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.6%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.7%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Head to Head
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Goals
Probability
Edge 7.2%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Goals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Goals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Goals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLCAR vs. RIC 2026-07-04 09:35
Show Picks
Tim Taranto Under 25.5 Disposals (Richmond)
Probability 70.2%
Edge 18.1%
Best Odds -109

Tim Taranto (Richmond) Under 25.5 Disposals (-109)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Tim Taranto's performance on his home turf, the numbers paint a clear picture for our bet on him to go Under 25.5 disposals against Carlton. Despite a solid average of 26 disposals in his last five home games, Taranto's recent contests against this opponent have seen him slightly underperforming with an average of 27.4 disposals in the last five matchups. Additionally, his turnovers have been creeping up lately, reaching an average of 3.4 in his recent home games. With the pressure mounting and the Tigers eyeing him closely, Taranto might struggle to find the same level of possession dominance he's used to. Expect him to fall just short of the line in this clash at the MCG.

Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 12.4%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.4%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.7%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.7%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 4.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.7%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Goals
Probability
Edge 2.7%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Total Points
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
AFLSTK vs. ESS 2026-07-05 05:15
Show Picks
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers: Under 177.5 Total Points
Probability 67.4%
Edge 13.6%
Best Odds -116

Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints : Under 177.5 Total Points (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the recent form of Essendon Bombers and St Kilda Saints, it's clear that both teams have been more defensive-minded lately. Essendon's last 5 home games have seen them averaging just 73.8 points for and 78 points against, showcasing a tighter defensive approach. On the other hand, St Kilda has been conceding an average of 93 points in their last 5 away games while scoring 87.8 points themselves. When these two teams clash at Marvel Stadium, expect a closely contested battle with both sides focused on limiting scoring opportunities. With Essendon aiming to tighten up their defense and St Kilda looking to maintain their defensive solidity on the road, the Under 177.5 total points bet seems like a smart play for this matchup. Both teams have shown a trend towards lower-scoring affairs, making the under an appealing choice for footy punters.

Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 12.8%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.6%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 11.8%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.7%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.3%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.2%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.7%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.0%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.4%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
AFLNM vs. PA 2026-07-05 06:40
Show Picks
George Wardlaw Over 16.5 Disposals (North Melbourne)
Probability 73.9%
Edge 18.6%
Best Odds -123

George Wardlaw (North Melbourne) Over 16.5 Disposals (-123)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at George Wardlaw's recent form on the road, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure for the Kangaroos in the midfield. Averaging 16.8 disposals in his last five away games, he's shown consistency in finding the footy. Facing Port Adelaide, a team he's been particularly effective against with a 20-disposal average in their recent matchups, Wardlaw seems primed to continue his strong run. With his ability to cover ground (320.2 metres gained per game) and maintain possession efficiently (69.5% disposal efficiency), he's poised to surpass the 16.5 disposal line. The numbers suggest Wardlaw is in a groove that could see him snagging plenty of contested possessions and racking up the kicks and handballs needed to split the middle on this bet.

Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 18.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.5%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 15.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 15.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.9%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Head to Head
Probability
Edge 12.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.0%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals
Probability
Edge 10.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.8%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.8%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.9%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%

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Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For the highest-confidence shortlist only, use Best Bets. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which team wins the match outright. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread) Win by more than a handicap margin. When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals Over or under the combined match score. Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.
Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks. For the curated shortlist of the day's strongest edges, use AFL Best Bets. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. AFL Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Best Bets.

What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What does edge mean on this page?

Edge is the difference between the model's estimated probability and the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's posted odds. A pick with a model probability of 65% against odds implying 55% has a +10% edge — meaning the model estimates the true likelihood is 10 percentage points higher than the market is pricing. Consistently finding positive-edge selections is the foundation of long-run profitable betting strategy.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.