Here are our NFL picks for Wednesday 23 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Dak Prescott (DAL) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns, priced at +135 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Dak Prescott (DAL) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+135)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Dallas Cowboys play Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dak Prescott (DAL) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at +135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Chris Brooks (GB) Under 7.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Green Bay Packers play Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Friday 25 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Chris Brooks (GB) Under 7.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Chris Brooks (GB) Under 7.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Green Bay Packers play Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Friday 25 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Chris Brooks (GB) Under 7.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kaleb Johnson (GB) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Green Bay Packers play Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Friday 25 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kaleb Johnson (GB) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jake Ferguson (DAL) Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Dallas Cowboys play Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jake Ferguson (DAL) Under 28.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kaleb Johnson (GB) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Green Bay Packers play Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Friday 25 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kaleb Johnson (GB) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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