Here are our NFL picks for Monday 28 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Jared Goff (DET) Under 264.5 Passing Yards, priced at -112 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jared Goff (DET) Under 264.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Detroit Lions play New York Jets in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jared Goff (DET) Under 264.5 Passing Yards. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-105)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Jacksonville Jaguars play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Under 32.5 Pass Attempts. It was priced at -105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

RJ Harvey (DEN) Under 2.5 Receptions (+108)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Denver Broncos play Los Angeles Rams in the NFL on Monday 28 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is RJ Harvey (DEN) Under 2.5 Receptions. It was priced at +108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jameson Williams (DET) Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Detroit Lions play New York Jets in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jameson Williams (DET) Under 57.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Laquon Treadwell (IND) Under 1.5 Receptions (-125)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Indianapolis Colts play Houston Texans in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Laquon Treadwell (IND) Under 1.5 Receptions. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Emeka Egbuka (TB) Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Buccaneers play Minnesota Vikings in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Emeka Egbuka (TB) Over 49.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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