Here are our NFL picks for Thursday 1 October 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Lamar Jackson (BAL) Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts, priced at -143 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Lamar Jackson (BAL) Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts (-143)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Baltimore Ravens play Tennessee Titans in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Lamar Jackson (BAL) Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts. It was priced at -143 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Chase Brown (CIN) Under 63.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Cincinnati Bengals play Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Chase Brown (CIN) Under 63.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-108)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Washington Commanders play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Dak Prescott (DAL) Under 24.5 Pass Completions (-112)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Houston Texans play Dallas Cowboys in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dak Prescott (DAL) Under 24.5 Pass Completions. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Keon Coleman (BUF) Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Keon Coleman (BUF) Over 13.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Bijan Robinson (ATL) Under 4.5 Receptions (-130)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New Orleans Saints play Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Tuesday 6 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Bijan Robinson (ATL) Under 4.5 Receptions. It was priced at -130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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