Here are our NFL picks for Sunday 4 October 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Jared Goff (DET) Under 263.5 Passing Yards, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jared Goff (DET) Under 263.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Carolina Panthers play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Monday 5 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jared Goff (DET) Under 263.5 Passing Yards. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Troy Franklin (DEN) Over 0.5 Receptions (-196)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

San Francisco 49ers play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Troy Franklin (DEN) Over 0.5 Receptions. It was priced at -196 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Malik Willis (MIA) Over 170.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Minnesota Vikings play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Malik Willis (MIA) Over 170.5 Passing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sione Vaki (DET) Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Carolina Panthers play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Monday 5 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sione Vaki (DET) Over 11.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kaleb Johnson (GB) Under 31.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Buccaneers play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kaleb Johnson (GB) Under 31.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

RJ Harvey (DEN) Under 3.5 Receptions (-135)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

San Francisco 49ers play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is RJ Harvey (DEN) Under 3.5 Receptions. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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