Of our last 629 graded player prop tips, 51% got a better price than where the market closed.
NFL Player Props · Updated daily in season
NFL Player Props Today — Free Prop Bets for Every Game
NFL player props today: every prop bet on the board, priced and ranked best first. All 1,869 are below, 50 to a page. Top prop free.
The NFL prop lines are on the board
Books have priced 394 players across 9 prop markets for the 12 games ahead. These are the most widely priced lines right now — our model's ranked picks land here the day it has enough to say.
| Player | Market | Line | Best price | Books |
|---|
| Troy Franklin | Receptions | 1.5 | +425 | 18 |
| Ollie Gordon II | Receptions | 1.5 | +400 | 18 |
| AJ Barner | Receptions | 2.5 | +150 | 18 |
| Nico Collins | Receptions | 4.5 | +150 | 18 |
| Jordan Addison | Receptions | 3.5 | +134 | 18 |
| Darren Waller | Receptions | 2.5 | +128 | 18 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Receptions | 3.5 | +126 | 18 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Receptions | 6.5 | +118 | 18 |
| Tucker Kraft | Receptions | 4.5 | -102 | 18 |
| John Metchie III | Receptions | 1.5 | +475 | 17 |
| Chris Bell | Receptions | 1.5 | +400 | 17 |
| Jalen Brooks | Receptions | 1.5 | +320 | 17 |
| Malachi Fields | Receptions | 1.5 | +300 | 17 |
| Rico Dowdle | Receptions | 1.5 | +290 | 17 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | Receptions | 1.5 | +200 | 17 |
| Rashod Bateman | Receptions | 1.5 | +200 | 17 |
| Samaje Perine | Receptions | 1.5 | +200 | 17 |
| Jameson Williams | Receptions | 3.5 | +150 | 17 |
Compare every book’s price on the live NFL odds board, screen hot streaks in the prop screener, or start with our free NFL pick.
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20
ML models
10k+
Sims per game
See verified results
1869 props on the board, and the 3 strongest are free
The prop we'd back first · Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Caleb Douglas Over 2.5 receptions (alt) -120
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win55.3%
The price says53.8%
$50 returns$91.50
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each prop below
| MIA v NYJ |
Caleb Douglas Over 2.5 receptions (alt) |
Lean55% chance |
-120 |
| PIT v NO |
Germie Bernard Under 4.5 receptions |
Lean46% chance |
+118 |
| NYG v HOU |
Xavier Hutchinson Over 0.5 receptions (alt) |
High86% chance |
-303 |
| CIN v BAL |
Rush + rec yards |
High64% chance |
Members |
| TB v CAR |
Rushing yards (alt) |
Long-shot25% chance |
Members |
| SF v ATL |
Rush + rec yards |
High64% chance |
Members |
| CLE v TEN |
Receptions |
Lean48% chance |
Members |
| IND v MIN |
Receiving yards (alt) |
Long-shot22% chance |
Members |
| DEN v ARI |
Receiving yards (alt) |
Lean45% chance |
Members |
| GB v DET |
Receiving yards |
Lean52% chance |
Members |
| LAR v LV |
Receiving yards |
Lean51% chance |
Members |
| KC v SEA |
Rushing yards (alt) |
Lean44% chance |
Members |
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
No props match that.
Try another game or market, or .
-114 best over price · 17 books
Chance to win:
55.3%
The price says 53.8%
Why we like it
Caleb Douglas (MIA) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate (-116)
Odds correct at time of publishing
New York Jets play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 25 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Caleb Douglas (MIA) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at -116 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
-141 best over price · 14 books
Chance to win:
46.4%
The price says 45.9%
Why we like it
New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Germie Bernard Under 4.5 Receptions (+118)
Odds correct at time of publishing
For this bet to hit tonight, Germie Bernard needs to have four receptions or fewer against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Saints have been more effective passing the ball than running it, so they might lean heavily on the air game. However, the Steelers have a solid defense that could limit Bernard's opportunities.
Bernard's quarterback faced extra pressure often last season, which can lead to quicker throws and fewer targets for him. The risk here is that if the Saints can't establish their passing game, Bernard might fall short on receptions.
+163 best over price · 16 books
Chance to win:
85.7%
The price says 75.2%
Why we like it
Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) Over 0.5 Player receptions alternate (-303)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Houston Texans play New York Giants in the NFL on Sunday 25 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) Over 0.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at -303 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
+170 best over price · 1 book
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 13.0%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 60.2%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 74.6%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 27.0%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 69.4%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 78.7%
-114 best over price · 7 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 53.2%
-114 best over price · 7 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 53.2%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 84.0%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 82.6%
+105 best over price · 13 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 54.9%
+105 best over price · 13 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 36.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 70.9%
+105 best over price · 13 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 55.6%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 11.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 62.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 59.2%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 54.0%
+101 best over price · 17 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 50.0%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 54.4%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 67.6%
+101 best over price · 17 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 50.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 87.0%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 76.3%
-109 best over price · 6 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 53.2%
-135 best over price · 1 book
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 59.2%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 45.9%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 80.0%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 78.1%
+105 best over price · 13 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 22.0%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 54.0%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 46.9%
+101 best over price · 17 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 29.8%
-109 best over price · 6 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 52.4%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 5.9%
-114 best over price · 6 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 54.0%
-109 best over price · 6 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 52.6%
-118 best over price · 13 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 50.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 84.0%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 41.7%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 89.3%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 86.2%
-112 best over price · 5 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Lean
The price says 53.5%
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 2.0%
+105 best over price · 13 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
High
The price says 75.8%
+1000 best over price · 3 books
Which side the model backs, and why ·
Pro
Chance to win:
Long-shot
The price says 4.3%
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Quick answer
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a wager on a single player statistic, such as passing yards, receptions, or touchdowns.
It is settled independently of the game winner, which makes props useful when you want to target a specific role,
matchup, or usage trend rather than the final score.
Probability vs odds
Edge calculation
Bankroll discipline
| Market |
What it measures |
Typical intent |
| Passing yards | QB volume and efficiency | Matchup driven |
| Receptions | Target share and route role | Usage driven |
| Rushing yards | Carry volume and game script | Game flow driven |
| Anytime TD | Scoring opportunity | Red zone driven |
Why our props have an edge
20
ML Models
Our edge is built in house. Each model is trained and evaluated per league.
10k+
Simulations
Games are simulated at scale to estimate distributions and probabilities.
AI
Reasoning
Every pick pairs the model's chance and value call with plain-English AI analysis.
How we decide which NFL props are worth a look
Every price a sportsbook posts is really a guess about how often something happens. Our model makes its own guess from the player's recent games, his role, the defence he faces and the weather, then compares the two. When the model thinks something happens more often than the price says, that prop makes the board. The board shows every line, the best price across the books, and how often the player has cleared it lately, for free. Which side the model backs, and why, is for Pro members.
If you want the deeper framework, see our actuarial sports betting methodology.
Example in plain English
Say a receiver's line is 59.5 yards at a price that means "about a coin flip". If our model makes it closer to 6 chances in 10, that is a gap worth knowing about. A gap is not a guarantee. It is the thing we grade in public, week after week, so you can see whether the gaps were real.
Related NFL pages
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