Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaxon Smith-Njigba is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 13 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 13%, implied 11%, edge +2.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 7, 8:29PM UTC
NFL
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+800 (9.00) · $100→$900
+2.3% Edge
New England Patriots
@
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle · Indoor
Thu 10 Sep, 12:20AM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Smith-Njigba said Tuesday in his appearance on ESPN's SportsCenter that rookie running back Jadarian Price had "a great training camp" and will help relieve pressure on the passing game in 2026.
updated Sep 2, 2:31PM UTC · 5d old
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How often this wins
13 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 13.4% · the book's price implies 11.1% · gap +2.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 13.4% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 9.00 | +2.3% |
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Yes Player last td (+800)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Seattle Seahawks play New England Patriots in the NFL on Thursday 10 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +800 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba's lines for Thu 10 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Receptions 6.5
+100 best over price · 11 books
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's receptions line is 6.5, best over price +100 across 11 books.
Betting angles
1 market liveReceptionsNext game · New England PatriotsU 6.5 -127 6.5posted line · receptions
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a live NFL receptions market for New England Patriots: under 6.5 receptions priced at -127.
Anytime TD4 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 4 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards21 lines trackedNo line posted 39.5typical line · receiving yds
line range24.5–90.5model over99%tips tracked21
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 21 times, typically around a 39.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaxon Smith-Njigba is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.3% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks on Thursday 10 September at Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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