Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for AJ Barner is Over 24.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 58%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 22, 12:11AM UTC
NFL
AJ Barner
SEA
AJ Barner has one live pick today: Receiving Yards Over 24.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards
Over 24.5
-114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
New England Patriots
@
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle · Indoor
Thu 10 Sep, 12:20AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 349 of 542 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
58 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 58.0% · before adjusting for past results 58.0% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +4.8%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards | 58.0% | 58.0% | 53.2% | 2.00 | +4.8% |
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AJ Barner (SEA) Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Seattle Seahawks play New England Patriots in the NFL on Thursday 10 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is AJ Barner (SEA) Over 24.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards151 lines trackedNo line posted 24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–31.5model over58%tips tracked151
AJ Barner's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 151 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions96 lines trackedNo line posted 2.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–6.5model over67%tips tracked96
AJ Barner's NFL receptions prop has been priced 96 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD3 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked3
AJ Barner's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 3 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Receptions (Alt) |
1.5 |
Over |
-500 |
✓ HIT |
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
9.5 |
Over |
-556 |
✓ HIT |
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
4.5 |
Over |
-1429 |
✓ HIT |
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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AJ Barner (SEA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for AJ Barner is Over 24.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.8% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks on Thursday 10 September at Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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