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NFL

MarShawn Lloyd

GB

Value call

MarShawn Lloyd has one live pick today: under 46.5 rush rec yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
35.5 Rush + Rec Yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 72.8% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +19.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Green Bay · Indoor
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
MarShawn Lloyd
under 46.5 rush rec yards
Rush + Rec Yards Under 46.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
HIGHWins about 73 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for MarShawn Lloyd is Under 46.5 on Rush + Rec Yards.
On Rush + Rec Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 73%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 12, 10:07AM UTC
UNKNOWN
Lloyd rushed 10 times for 31 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for six yards during Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears.
updated Oct 12, 2:55AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rush + Rec Yards72.8%—53.2%1.99+19.6%

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AI Analysis

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Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears: MarShawn Lloyd Under 46.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

MarShawn Lloyd is facing a tough challenge against the Green Bay Packers, who have been strong at home, winning 23 of their last 34 games. The Packers' defense also knows how to pressure quarterbacks, as they often send extra rushers. Lloyd may find it hard to get going, especially since the Packers have a solid home field advantage. On the flip side, the Bears have been more effective in the air than on the ground this season, which could mean fewer rushing yards for Lloyd. With both defenses likely to put up a good fight, betting on Lloyd to stay under 46.5 total rushing and receiving yards feels like a solid pick. The most concrete risk is that both teams are close in form, making any game surprises possible.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)
Overall Hit Rate (21 picks) 61.9% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards68 lines trackedNo line posted
9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–59.5model over94%tips tracked68

MarShawn Lloyd's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 68 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions35 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–4.5model over45%tips tracked35

MarShawn Lloyd's NFL receptions prop has been priced 35 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards62 lines trackedNo line posted
5.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–59.5tips tracked62

MarShawn Lloyd's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 62 times, typically around a 5.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Rush + Rec Yards 46.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Rush + Rec Yards 45.5 Under -111 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Rush + Rec Yards 44.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Receiving Yards — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Receiving Yards — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

MarShawn Lloyd (GB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 61.9% on tracked MarShawn Lloyd picks. The latest model pick for MarShawn Lloyd is Under 46.5 on Rush + Rec Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers on Sunday 11 October at Green Bay. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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