Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for MarShawn Lloyd is Over 2.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 24 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 24%, the price says 14%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 22, 6:54AM UTC
NFL
MarShawn Lloyd
GB
MarShawn Lloyd has one live pick today: Receptions (Alt) Over 2.5 that pays $730 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 2.5
+630 (7.30) · $100→$730
Value call
Atlanta Falcons
@
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay · Indoor
Fri 25 Sep, 12:15AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 349 of 542 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Lloyd rushed six times for 20 yards in the Packers' 20-17 overtime win over the Jets on Sunday. He added two catches for six yards and a touchdown on two targets.
updated Sep 21, 2:30AM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
24 in 100
Predicted
1.7 Receptions (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 24.5% · the book's price implies 13.7% · gap +10.8%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 24.5% | — | 13.7% | 7.30 | +10.8% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
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MarShawn Lloyd (GB) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate (+630)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Green Bay Packers play Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Friday 25 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is MarShawn Lloyd (GB) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +630 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $73 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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MarShawn Lloyd's lines for Fri 25 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receptions (Alt) 2.5
+171 best over price · 8 books
MarShawn Lloyd's receptions (alt) line is 2.5, best over price +171 across 8 books.
Receptions (Alt) 1.5
+171 best over price · 8 books
MarShawn Lloyd's receptions (alt) line is 1.5, best over price +171 across 8 books.
Receptions (Alt) 0.5
-233 best over price · 2 books
MarShawn Lloyd's receptions (alt) line is 0.5, best over price -233 across 2 books.
Receiving Yards 5.5
-110 best over price · 5 books
MarShawn Lloyd's receiving yards line is 5.5, best over price -110 across 5 books.
Receiving Yards 4.5
-122 best over price · 2 books
MarShawn Lloyd's receiving yards line is 4.5, best over price -122 across 2 books.
Last Touchdown Scorer
MarShawn Lloyd's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 49.5
MarShawn Lloyd's receiving yards (alt) line is 49.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5
MarShawn Lloyd's receiving yards (alt) line is 39.5.
Betting angles
3 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay PackersO 24.5 +840 24.5posted line · receiving yds
MarShawn Lloyd has a live NFL receiving yards market for Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers: over 24.5 receiving yds priced at +840.
ReceptionsNext game · Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay PackersO 1.5 +190 1.5posted line · receptions
MarShawn Lloyd has a live NFL receptions market for Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers: over 1.5 receptions priced at +190.
Rushing YardsNext game · Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay PackersO 14.5 -500 14.5posted line · rushing yds
MarShawn Lloyd has a live NFL rushing yards market for Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers: over 14.5 rushing yds priced at -500.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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MarShawn Lloyd (GB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for MarShawn Lloyd is Over 2.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.8% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers on Friday 25 September at Green Bay. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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