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NFL

AJ Dillon

CAR

Value call

AJ Dillon has one live pick today: over 24.5 rushing yards that pays $393 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
18 in 100
Predicted
18.6 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 18.5% · before adjusting for past results 27.2% · the book's price implies 25.5% · gap -7.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Carolina · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 8:20 PM ET
AJ Dillon
over 24.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 24.5 +293 (3.93) · $100→$393
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 18 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$39.30 Odds+293
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for AJ Dillon is Over 24.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 18 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 18%, the price says 25%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 1:42AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
QUESTIONABLE
questionable
updated Oct 14, 8:19PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)27.2%18.5%25.5%3.93+1.7%

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AI Analysis

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AJ Dillon (CAR) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate (+293)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Carolina Panthers play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Monday 5 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is AJ Dillon (CAR) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate. It was priced at +293 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $39.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
9%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1

AJ Dillon's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 9%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards10 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range14.5–39.5model over27%tips tracked10

AJ Dillon's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 10 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many rushing yards does AJ Dillon average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

AJ Dillon (CAR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for AJ Dillon is Over 24.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers on Sunday 4 October at Carolina. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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