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The latest Bet Better model pick for J.J. McCarthy is Over 24.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On the Rushing Yards (Alt) market the model assigns a model win probability of 40%, versus the book's implied 38%, for a model edge of +2.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 25, 11:47AM UTC
NFL

J.J. McCarthy

MIN

+2.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 24.5 +164 (2.64)
+2.1% Edge
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
McCarthy and free-agent addition Kyler Murray shared QB reps during Tuesday's mandatory minicamp practice, Lindsey Young of the Vikings' official site reports.
updated Jun 10, 4:55PM UTC · 44d old
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Model Probability
40.0%
Implied Probability
37.9%
Model Edge
+2.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)40.0%—37.9%2.50+2.1%

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AI Analysis

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J.J. McCarthy (MIN) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate (+164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on J.J. McCarthy to rush for over 24.5 yards is a calculated risk based on his recent performance. Looking at his last five games, McCarthy's average rushing yards per game significantly exceed the over/under of 24.5 yards, thus showing a positive trend. This suggests that his probability of reaching or surpassing 24.5 yards is relatively high. Furthermore, the model edge of 0.0213305454631755 indicates that there is a slight advantage in favor of this bet, further reinforcing the likelihood of this outcome. However, it is important to consider the strength of the Baltimore Ravens' defense, which may affect McCarthy's ability to rush for significant yards. Still, the statistical data provides a solid rationale for this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards9 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range14.5–24.5model over40%tips tracked9

J.J. McCarthy's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 9 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD3 lines trackedNo line posted
38%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked3

J.J. McCarthy's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 3 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 38%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

J.J. McCarthy (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for J.J. McCarthy is Over 24.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +2.1% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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