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J.J. McCarthy

NYG

Value call

J.J. McCarthy has one live pick today: under 15.5 rushing yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
63 in 100
Predicted
12.6 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 63.0% · before adjusting for past results 72.3% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +9.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
New York · Indoor
Thu 12 Nov, 8:15 PM ET
J.J. McCarthy
under 15.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards Under 15.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
HIGHWins about 63 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for J.J. McCarthy is Under 15.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 63%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:04PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
McCarthy completed 23 of 36 passes for 293 yards with a touchdown and an interception while adding six rushes for 34 yards in the Giants' 24-21 loss to the Commanders on Thursday.
updated Nov 13, 5:11AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards72.3%63.0%53.2%1.99+19.1%

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AI Analysis

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New York Giants vs Washington Commanders: J.J. McCarthy Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tonight, we need J.J. McCarthy to rush for less than 15.5 yards. The odds look good because in 2026, he only took a small number of carries, and his rushing attempts were limited. He had just 9 carries out of 232 total plays, showing that he doesn't run much. The Giants also have a solid defense, and they have pressured quarterbacks often. McCarthy faced extra rushers on about a third of his plays. With the Giants' pass rush bringing quarterbacks down regularly, he might not find many open lanes to run. The biggest risk is that these teams are closely matched, and McCarthy could surprise us, but the signs point toward him staying under that yardage.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)
Overall Hit Rate (24 picks) 70.8% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD8 lines trackedNo line posted
21%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked8

J.J. McCarthy's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 8 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 21%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards14 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–29.5model over32%tips tracked14

J.J. McCarthy's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 14 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards29 lines trackedNo line posted
124.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–211.5model over96%tips tracked29

J.J. McCarthy's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 29 times, typically around a 124.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Rushing Yards 15.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards (Alt) 159.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
12 Nov 26 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Passing Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

J.J. McCarthy (NYG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 70.8% on tracked J.J. McCarthy picks. The latest model pick for J.J. McCarthy is Under 15.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.1% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs New York Giants on Thursday 12 November at New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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