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NFL

J.J. McCarthy

NYG

Value call

J.J. McCarthy has one live pick today: under 0.5 passing touchdowns that pays $268 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
42 in 100
Predicted
0.7 passing touchdowns
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 41.7% · before adjusting for past results 51.5% · the book's price implies 37.3% · gap +4.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
Houston · Indoor
Sun 25 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
J.J. McCarthy
under 0.5 passing touchdowns
Passing Touchdowns Under 0.5 +168 (2.68) · $100→$268
Value call
LEANWins about 42 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$26.80 Odds+168
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for J.J. McCarthy is Under 0.5 on Passing Touchdowns.
On Passing Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 42 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 42%, the price says 37%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 3:26PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$20,973 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
McCarthy completed 20 of 28 passes for 252 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. He added one yard on his only carry.
updated Oct 25, 11:50PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Touchdowns51.5%41.7%37.3%2.84+14.1%

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AI Analysis

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Houston Texans vs New York Giants: J.J. McCarthy Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+167)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The odds of +167 for J.J. McCarthy to throw under half a passing touchdown look interesting. Both the Texans and Giants have shown they struggle against strong defenses, making it tough for quarterbacks to shine. McCarthy faced extra rushers on a good number of his dropbacks, which can lead to mistakes and fewer scoring chances. The Giants have been more successful throwing than running this season, but McCarthy's been under pressure quite a bit. Plus, Houston has only won a handful of games as a home underdog since 2021, showing they often find it hard to score. With both teams close in ability, this bet feels like a fair shot, but it could easily swing the other way too.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD8 lines trackedNo line posted
21%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked8

J.J. McCarthy's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 8 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 21%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards13 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–29.5model over32%tips tracked13

J.J. McCarthy's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 13 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards4 lines trackedNo line posted
124.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–124.5model over94%tips tracked4

J.J. McCarthy's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 124.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many rushing yards does J.J. McCarthy average?How many passing yards does J.J. McCarthy average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Oct 26 New York Giants @ Houston Texans Passing Touchdowns 0.5 Under +168 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 New York Giants @ Houston Texans Passing Yards (Alt) 124.5 Over -1000 ✓ HIT
18 Oct 26 New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants Rushing Yards 0.5 Over +108 ✓ HIT
18 Oct 26 New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants Rushing Yards — — — Pending
18 Oct 26 New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
18 Oct 26 New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

J.J. McCarthy (NYG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for J.J. McCarthy is Under 0.5 on Passing Touchdowns. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.1% on this pick. Their next game is New York Giants vs Houston Texans on Sunday 25 October at Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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