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The latest Bet Better model pick for J.J. McCarthy is Over 24.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 40 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 40%, implied 38%, edge +2.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 14, 2:37PM UTC
NFL

J.J. McCarthy

MIN

+2.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 24.5 +164 (2.64) · $100→$264
+2.1% Edge
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
McCarthy told reporters Wednesday that he wants to remain in Minnesota despite losing the Vikings' quarterback competition to Kyler Murray, Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com reports.
updated Aug 13, 3:23PM UTC
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
40 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 40.0% · the book's price implies 37.9% · gap +2.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)40.0%37.9%2.50+2.1%

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AI Analysis

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J.J. McCarthy (MIN) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate (+164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on J.J. McCarthy to rush for over 24.5 yards is a calculated risk based on his recent performance. Looking at his last five games, McCarthy's average rushing yards per game significantly exceed the over/under of 24.5 yards, thus showing a positive trend. This suggests that his probability of reaching or surpassing 24.5 yards is relatively high. Furthermore, the model edge of 0.0213305454631755 indicates that there is a slight advantage in favor of this bet, further reinforcing the likelihood of this outcome. However, it is important to consider the strength of the Baltimore Ravens' defense, which may affect McCarthy's ability to rush for significant yards. Still, the statistical data provides a solid rationale for this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards9 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range14.5–24.5model over40%tips tracked9

J.J. McCarthy's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 9 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD3 lines trackedNo line posted
38%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked3

J.J. McCarthy's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 3 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 38%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

J.J. McCarthy (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for J.J. McCarthy is Over 24.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +2.1% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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