Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Darnold is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns.
On Passing Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 57%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 22, 2:03PM UTC
NFL
Sam Darnold
SEA
Sam Darnold has one live pick today: Passing Touchdowns Under 1.5 that pays $177 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Passing Touchdowns
Under 1.5
-130 (1.77) · $100→$177
Value call
New England Patriots
@
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle · Indoor
Thu 10 Sep, 12:20AM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUTSeason pending
Darnold (glute) is ahead of schedule in his recovery and has a chance to practice ahead of Seattle's Week 3 road game against the Commanders, head coach Mike Macdonald said after Sunday's 31-7 victory over the Cardinals, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
updated Sep 21, 12:25AM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
61 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 61.5% · before adjusting for past results 61.5% · the book's price implies 56.5% · gap +5.0%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Touchdowns | 61.5% | 61.5% | 56.5% | 1.88 | +5.0% |
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Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Seattle Seahawks play New England Patriots in the NFL on Thursday 10 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at -130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formRushing Yards11 lines trackedNo line posted 5.5typical line · rushing yds
line range5.5–5.5tips tracked11
Sam Darnold's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 11 times, typically around a 5.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Passing Touchdowns |
1.5 |
Under |
-130 |
✓ HIT |
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Interceptions Thrown |
0.5 |
Under |
-104 |
✓ HIT |
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Rushing Yards |
5.5 |
Under |
-108 |
✓ HIT |
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Rushing Attempts (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 10 Sep 26 |
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Rushing Attempts |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Sam Darnold (SEA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Darnold is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns. The model identifies a slight edge of +5.0% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks on Thursday 10 September at Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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