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Sam Darnold

SEA

Value call

Sam Darnold has one live pick today: over 179.5 passing yards that pays $129 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
96 in 100
Predicted
240.2 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 95.8% · before adjusting for past results 97.4% · the book's price implies 77.5% · gap +18.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Denver · Indoor
Thu 15 Oct, 8:15 PM ET
Sam Darnold
over 179.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 179.5 -345 (1.29) · $100→$129
Value call
HIGHWins about 96 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$12.90 Odds-345
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Darnold is Over 179.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 96 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 96%, the price says 78%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 14, 10:19PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 807 of 1,525 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Is Sam Darnold playing tomorrow? Yes, on the latest team news. Sam Darnold is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.

UNKNOWN
Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
updated Oct 12, 1:11AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)97.4%95.8%77.5%1.29+19.9%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

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AI Analysis

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Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold Over 179.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-345)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The Denver Broncos' defense has struggled against tight ends, allowing nearly half a touchdown per game last season. This could open up opportunities for Sam Darnold, especially since he might face some extra rushers, but the Broncos' pass coverage isn't the strongest. In contrast, the Seattle Seahawks' defense has been solid against running backs, which means Darnold will likely need to rely on his passing game to move the ball effectively. Betting on Darnold to throw over 179.5 passing yards makes sense here. He's been rated as a strong favorite to clear this mark, and with the Broncos' weaknesses in mind, it looks promising. The biggest risk is if Denver's pass rush can really disrupt his rhythm, but if he finds his flow, he should hit the target.

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Pick History & Track Record

Sam Darnold's lines for Fri 16 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5

Sam Darnold's passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.

Passing Yards 219.5
-125 best over price · 1 book

Sam Darnold's passing yards line is 219.5, best over price -125 across 1 book.

Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5

Sam Darnold's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.

Rushing Attempts 2.5

Sam Darnold's rushing attempts line is 2.5.

Passing Yards 220.5
-110 best over price · 7 books

Sam Darnold's passing yards line is 220.5, best over price -110 across 7 books.

Passing Yards (Alt) 169.5

Sam Darnold's passing yards (alt) line is 169.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 224.5

Sam Darnold's passing yards (alt) line is 224.5.

Rushing Yards 4.5
-108 best over price · 10 books

Sam Darnold's rushing yards line is 4.5, best over price -108 across 10 books.

Betting angles

3 markets live
Passing YardsNext game · Denver BroncosO 179.5 -345
179.5posted line · passing yds

Sam Darnold has a live NFL passing yards market for Denver Broncos: over 179.5 passing yds priced at -345.

Rushing YardsNext game · Denver BroncosU 4.5 -108
4.5posted line · rushing yds

Sam Darnold has a live NFL rushing yards market for Denver Broncos: under 4.5 rushing yds priced at -108.

Anytime TDNext game · Denver BroncosAnytime TD +1100

Sam Darnold has a live NFL anytime td market for Denver Broncos priced at +1100.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Darnold (SEA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Darnold is Over 179.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.9% on this pick. Their next game is Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos on Thursday 15 October at Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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