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NFL

Sam Darnold

SEA

Value call

Sam Darnold has one live pick today: over 179.5 passing yards that pays $120 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
90 in 100
Predicted
228.5 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 90.4% · before adjusting for past results 93.9% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap +7.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Seattle · Indoor
Mon 2 Nov, 8:20 PM ET
Sam Darnold
over 179.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 179.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
Value call
HIGHWins about 90 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$12.00 Odds-500
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Darnold is Over 179.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 90 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 90%, the price says 83%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:02PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Darnold (quadriceps), who won't play this coming Sunday at Las Vegas, is expected to return in Week 12 at San Francisco on Sunday, Nov. 29 after a Week 11 bye, Gregg Bell of Sports Radio 93.3 KJR Seattle reports.
updated Nov 10, 12:15AM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)93.9%90.4%83.3%1.20+10.5%

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AI Analysis

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Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears: Sam Darnold Over 179.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-526)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For Sam Darnold to go over 179.5 passing yards tonight, he'll need to find his rhythm early against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have struggled with extra rushers, putting pressure on their quarterback often. Seattle's offense has been better at throwing than running, which means Darnold is likely to pass more. He's been effective at racking up yards in similar situations, and this matchup looks favorable for him. The main risk is that both teams are close in performance, which could lead to a more cautious game plan. Still, Darnold should have plenty of chances to hit that yardage mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)
Overall Hit Rate (26 picks) 57.7% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards47 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · rushing yds
line range3.5–39.5tips tracked47

Sam Darnold's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 47 times, typically around a 4.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards255 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range149.5–249.5model over99%tips tracked255

Sam Darnold's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 255 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD23 lines trackedNo line posted
13%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked23

Sam Darnold's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 23 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 13%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Sam Darnold average?How many rushing yards does Sam Darnold average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards — — — Pending
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Darnold (SEA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 57.7% on tracked Sam Darnold picks. The latest model pick for Sam Darnold is Over 179.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.5% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks on Monday 2 November at Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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