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NFL

Kaelon Black

SF

Value call

Kaelon Black has one live pick today: under 31.5 rushing yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
54 in 100
Predicted
28.5 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 54.3% · before adjusting for past results 64.1% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +1.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta · Indoor
Sun 25 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Kaelon Black
under 31.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards Under 31.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
LEANWins about 54 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kaelon Black is Under 31.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 29, 11:01AM UTC
UNKNOWN
Black rushed 12 times for 63 yards and a touchdown and brought in one of three targets for minus-4 yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. He also lost a fumble and returned one kickoff for 34 yards.
updated Oct 26, 12:29AM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards64.1%54.3%53.2%2.00+10.9%

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AI Analysis

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Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers: Kaelon Black Under 31.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For the bet to hit, Kaelon Black needs to rush for less than 31.5 yards tonight. He had a solid season last year, but he only took a little over a quarter of the carries for his team, which makes it harder for him to rack up big yardage. The San Francisco 49ers also had trouble against tight ends last season, which could mean more focus on passing plays instead of running the ball. Plus, the Falcons' defense is tough, and they can really shut down the run. While Black has potential, the fact that he shares the ball so much makes this bet a good chance. Just remember, the game can swing in unexpected ways, and the 49ers' defense could surprise us.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards120 lines trackedNo line posted
9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–59.5model over94%tips tracked120

Kaelon Black's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 120 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD18 lines trackedNo line posted
23%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked18

Kaelon Black's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 18 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 23%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Rushing Yards 31.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Rushing Yards 29.5 Under -111 ✗ MISS
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Rushing Yards 28.5 Under -109 ✗ MISS
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Rushing Yards — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
19 Oct 26 Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Kaelon Black (SF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kaelon Black is Under 31.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.9% on this pick. Their next game is San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons on Sunday 25 October at Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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