Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kaelon Black is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 23 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 23%, implied 9%, edge +14.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 16, 9:11PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+1000 (11.00) · $100→$1,100
+14.4% Edge
Miami Dolphins
@
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 8:25PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Black rushed 14 times for 65 yards and brought in his only target for five yards during the 49ers' 27-7 Week 1 win over the Rams in Melbourne, Australia.
updated Sep 11, 5:06AM UTC · 5d old
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How often this wins
23 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 23.5% · the book's price implies 9.1% · gap +14.4%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 23.5% | — | 9.1% | 11.00 | +14.4% |
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Kaelon Black (SF) Yes Player last td (+1000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
San Francisco 49ers play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kaelon Black (SF) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +1000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $110 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Kaelon Black's lines for Sun 20 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Kaelon Black's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Kaelon Black (SF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kaelon Black is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.4% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers on Sunday 20 September at San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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