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NFL

Brock Purdy

SF

Value call

Brock Purdy has one live pick today: over 199.5 passing yards that pays $131 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
94 in 100
Predicted
249.8 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 94.3% · the book's price implies 76.3% · gap +18.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco · Indoor
Sun 8 Nov, 4:05 PM ET
Brock Purdy
over 199.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 199.5 -323 (1.31) · $100→$131
Value call
HIGHWins about 94 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.10 Odds-323
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brock Purdy is Over 199.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 94 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 94%, the price says 76%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 8, 10:14AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Is Brock Purdy playing today? Yes, on the latest team news. Brock Purdy is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.

UNKNOWN
Purdy completed 27 of 40 passes for 288 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and added two carries for five yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday.
updated Oct 26, 1:49AM UTC · 13d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)94.3%—76.3%1.31+18.0%

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AI Analysis

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San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Purdy Over 199.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-323)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Brock Purdy has been playing well lately, showing good form as the quarterback for the 49ers. With the Raiders' defense struggling against the pass, this sets up perfectly for Purdy to throw for more than 199.5 yards. The 49ers are at home, and their offense has been strong, giving Purdy plenty of chances to rack up passing yards. While the Raiders have some talent on defense, they haven't consistently stopped opposing quarterbacks this season. The biggest risk here is that the game could turn into a run-heavy match if the 49ers get a big lead early. Still, with how well Purdy has been playing, this bet makes a lot of sense.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Brock Purdy's lines for Sun 8 Nov

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5

Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 199.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 224.5
-189 best over price · 1 book

Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 224.5, best over price -189 across 1 book.

Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5

Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 209.5

Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 209.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 219.5

Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 219.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5

Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 189.5.

Passing Touchdowns 2.5

Brock Purdy's passing touchdowns line is 2.5.

Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5

Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.

Betting angles

2 markets live
Rushing YardsNext game · Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ersO 4.5 -500
4.5posted line · rushing yds

Brock Purdy has a live NFL rushing yards market for Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers: over 4.5 rushing yds priced at -500.

Passing YardsNext game · Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ersO 199.5 -323
199.5posted line · passing yds

Brock Purdy has a live NFL passing yards market for Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers: over 199.5 passing yds priced at -323.

Anytime TD6 lines trackedNo line posted
20%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked6

Brock Purdy's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 6 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 20%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Brock Purdy (SF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brock Purdy is Over 199.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.0% on this pick. Their next game is Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers on Sunday 8 November at San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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