Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brock Purdy is Over 224.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 66%, the price says 61%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:03PM UTC
NFL
Brock Purdy
SF
Brock Purdy has one live pick today: Passing Yards (Alt) Over 224.5 that pays $163 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Passing Yards (Alt)
Over 224.5
-159 (1.63) · $100→$163
Value call
Arizona Cardinals
@
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco · Indoor
Sun 27 Sep, 8:05PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Purdy completed 20 of 22 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Dolphins. He also rushed three times for 30 yards and a touchdown.
updated Sep 21, 1:31AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
66 in 100
Predicted
238.0 Passing Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 66.2% · the book's price implies 61.4% · gap +4.9%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Yards (Alt) | 66.2% | — | 61.4% | 1.63 | +4.9% |
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Brock Purdy (SF) Over 224.5 Player pass yds alternate (-159)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
San Francisco 49ers play Arizona Cardinals in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Brock Purdy (SF) Over 224.5 Player pass yds alternate. It was priced at -159 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Brock Purdy's lines for Sun 27 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Yards (Alt) 224.5
Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 224.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5
Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 199.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5
Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 149.5
Brock Purdy's passing yards (alt) line is 149.5.
Passing Touchdowns 1.5
Brock Purdy's passing touchdowns line is 1.5.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Brock Purdy's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Betting angles
1 market livePassing YardsNext game · Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ersO 199.5 -303
199.5posted line · passing yds
Brock Purdy has a live NFL passing yards market for Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: over 199.5 passing yds priced at -303.
Rushing Yards12 lines trackedNo line posted 14.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–29.5model over44%tips tracked12
Brock Purdy's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 12 times, typically around a 14.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 20 Sep 26 |
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers |
Interceptions Thrown |
0.5 |
Under |
-179 |
✓ HIT |
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Brock Purdy (SF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brock Purdy is Over 224.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +4.9% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers on Sunday 27 September at San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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