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The latest Bet Better model pick for Brock Purdy is Over 9.5 on Rushing Yards.
On the Rushing Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 56%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +2.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
NFL

Brock Purdy

SF

+2.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards Over 9.5 -112 (1.89)
+2.7% Edge
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Purdy, who has been participating in this week's Tight End University, an event hosted by teammate George Kittle (Achilles), said that he plans to gather with other 49ers for throwing sessions over the next month prior to training camp, David Lombardi of the San Francisco Standard reports.
updated Jun 25, 4:34PM UTC · 25d old
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Model Probability
55.6%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+2.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards55.6%—52.9%1.80+2.7%

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AI Analysis

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Brock Purdy (SF) Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Brock Purdy to go Over 9.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market requires a careful evaluation of his performance data. His recent form doesn't strongly support this bet, with no hits in his last 3 overall games and only a single hit in his last 3 home games. His history against the Carolina Panthers is notably poor, with a 0% hit rate. However, it's worth noting he's hit this mark in 50% of his last 10 home games. The overall hit rate of 34.7% (17/49) and the home hit rate of 38.5% (10/26) offer some hope, but these are still less than ideal. The model edge of 0.0268 is quite minimal, suggesting the odds are only slightly in favor of the bet. Given these statistics, betting Over 9.5 for Brock Purdy requires a belief that he will outperform his recent and

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards12 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–29.5model over44%tips tracked12

Brock Purdy's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 12 times, typically around a 14.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Brock Purdy (SF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brock Purdy is Over 9.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers at San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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