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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alvin Kamara is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 4 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 4%, the price says 9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:17PM UTC
NFL

Alvin Kamara

NO

Value call

Alvin Kamara has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $1,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer Yes +1000 (11.00) · $100→$1,100
Value call
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
New Orleans · Indoor
Sun 27 Sep, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 702 of 1,223 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Kamara rushed seven times for 23 yards and two touchdowns and brought in five of seven targets for 35 yards in the Saints' 45-24 loss to the Falcons on Monday night.
updated Oct 6, 4:15AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
4 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 3.7% · before adjusting for past results 21.1% · the book's price implies 9.1% · gap -5.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Last Touchdown Scorer21.1%3.7%9.1%11.00+12.0%

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AI Analysis

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Alvin Kamara (NO) Yes Player last td (+1000)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New Orleans Saints play Las Vegas Raiders in the NFL on Sunday 27 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Alvin Kamara (NO) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +1000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $110 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD3 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked3

Alvin Kamara's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 3 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards3 lines trackedNo line posted
13.5typical line · receiving yds
line range13.5–18.5tips tracked3

Alvin Kamara's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 13.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted
2.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–3.5tips tracked2

Alvin Kamara's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards2 lines trackedNo line posted
27.5typical line · rushing yds
line range27.5–27.5tips tracked2

Alvin Kamara's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 27.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Sep 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints Rushing Yards 27.5 Under -109 ✗ MISS
27 Sep 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints Rush + Rec Yards 45.5 Under -110 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints Receptions 3.5 Under -172 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints Receiving Yards — — — Pending
27 Sep 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints Receptions — — — Pending
27 Sep 26 Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints Receiving Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Alvin Kamara (NO) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alvin Kamara is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.0% on this pick. Their next game is Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints on Sunday 27 September at New Orleans. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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