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NFL

Alvin Kamara

NO

Value call

Alvin Kamara has one live pick today: under 12.5 receiving yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
53 in 100
Predicted
12.3 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 52.7% · before adjusting for past results 73.0% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap -0.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
New Orleans · Indoor
Sun 25 Oct, 9:30 AM ET
Alvin Kamara
under 12.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards Under 12.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
LEANWins about 53 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Alvin Kamara is Under 12.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 53 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 53%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 3:26PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$20,973 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Kamara carried the ball six times for five yards and caught all seven of his targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers.
updated Oct 25, 6:23PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards73.0%52.7%53.2%1.98+19.8%

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AI Analysis

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New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Alvin Kamara Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Alvin Kamara has been a key player for the New Orleans Saints, but he faces a tough challenge this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers gave up the fewest touchdowns to running backs last season, allowing less than half a touchdown per game. This means they really know how to stop players like Kamara from scoring. On top of that, the Saints' quarterback has faced a lot of extra rushers lately, which could make it harder for him to get the ball to Kamara. With all this in mind, betting on Kamara to have under 12.5 receiving yards feels like a smart move. Just remember, even with the good chance, there's a risk that he might surprise everyone and have a big game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD4 lines trackedNo line posted
44%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked4

Alvin Kamara's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 4 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 44%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards21 lines trackedNo line posted
12.5typical line · receiving yds
line range10.5–59.5tips tracked21

Alvin Kamara's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 21 times, typically around a 12.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions11 lines trackedNo line posted
2.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–3.5tips tracked11

Alvin Kamara's NFL receptions prop has been priced 11 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards66 lines trackedNo line posted
9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–59.5model over94%tips tracked66

Alvin Kamara's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 66 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many rushing yards does Alvin Kamara average?How many receiving yards does Alvin Kamara average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Oct 26 Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Rush + Rec Yards 30.5 Over -118 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Rush + Rec Yards 31.5 Over -112 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Rush + Rec Yards 32.5 Over -109 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Receiving Yards — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
25 Oct 26 Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Rushing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Alvin Kamara (NO) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alvin Kamara is Under 12.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.8% on this pick. Their next game is Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints on Sunday 25 October at New Orleans. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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