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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nico Collins is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer.
On the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market the model assigns a model win probability of 50%, versus the book's implied 40%, for a model edge of +10.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
NFL

Nico Collins

HOU

+10.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Yes +150 (2.50)
+10.2% Edge
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans
Houston · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Collins agreed to terms Tuesday on a contract restructure with the Texans, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
updated May 26, 8:09PM UTC · 55d old
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Model Probability
50.2%
Implied Probability
40.0%
Model Edge
+10.2%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime Touchdown Scorer50.2%—40.0%1.99+10.2%

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AI Analysis

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Nico Collins (HOU) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Nico Collins to score a touchdown at any time during the Houston Texans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers game is statistically justified, given his past performances. Specifically, Collins has a strong track record of scoring when playing at home. His home hit rate over the last 10 games stands at 6/10 and extends to a solid 12/20 in the last 20 games. Additionally, Collins has a perfect hit rate against Tampa Bay, with 1/1 both overall and at home. This consistency against Tampa Bay, coupled with his home performance, provides a statistically strong case for betting on Collins to score at any time during the game. While his overall current hit streak is zero, his hit streak against Tampa Bay stands at 1, reinforcing his ability to perform against this particular team.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD6 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked6

Nico Collins's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 6 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nico Collins (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nico Collins is Yes on Anytime Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.2% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Houston Texans at Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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