Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nico Collins is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 3 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 3%, the price says 10%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 4:10PM UTC
NFL
Nico Collins
HOU
Nico Collins has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $1,000 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+900 (10.00) · $100→$1,000
Value call
Cincinnati Bengals
@
Houston Texans
Houston · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUTSeason pending
Collins may miss two games due to a hamstring injury, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
updated Sep 19, 7:55PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
3 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 3.4% · before adjusting for past results 18.9% · the book's price implies 10.0% · gap -6.6%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 18.9% | 3.4% | 10.0% | 10.00 | +8.9% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
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Nico Collins (HOU) Yes Player last td (+900)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Houston Texans play Cincinnati Bengals in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Nico Collins (HOU) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +900 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $100 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Nico Collins's lines for Sun 20 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Out
Nico Collins's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD6 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked6
Nico Collins's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 6 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards62 lines trackedNo line posted 24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range24.5–71.5model over99%tips tracked62
Nico Collins's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 62 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions1 line trackedNo line posted 5.5typical line · receptions
tips tracked1
Nico Collins's NFL receptions prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 5.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
49.5 |
Over |
-278 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
39.5 |
Over |
-500 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
29.5 |
Over |
-1111 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
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Nico Collins (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nico Collins is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.9% on this pick. Their next game is Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans on Sunday 20 September at Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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