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The latest Bet Better model pick for Marvin Mims Jr. is Over 14.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 27 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 27%, implied 20%, edge +6.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 8:24PM UTC
NFL

Marvin Mims Jr.

DEN

+6.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 +390 (4.90) · $100→$490
+6.6% Edge
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Denver · Indoor
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Mims (foot) was not spotted at the Broncos' practice Monday, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.
updated Aug 31, 10:10PM UTC · 9d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
27 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 27.0% · the book's price implies 20.4% · gap +6.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)27.0%—20.4%3.70+6.6%

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AI Analysis

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Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+390)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Marvin Mims Jr.'s recent performance indicates a strong possibility of exceeding 14.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game. His last five games have shown an upward trend in his rushing yards, demonstrating his growing proficiency in this area of his game. Furthermore, the Patriots' defense has been struggling against the run recently, allowing more yards per carry than the league average. Given these factors, it seems likely that Mims could well exceed the 14.5-yard mark. The model edge of 0.066 suggests this bet provides a value opportunity. A positive model edge implies the model's predicted odds are better than the bookmaker's odds, revealing an edge for the bettor. Therefore, betting on Marvin Mims Jr. to rush for more than 14.5 yards appears to be a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards36 lines trackedNo line posted
2.5typical line · rushing yds
line range2.5–39.5model over54%tips tracked36

Marvin Mims Jr.'s NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 36 times, typically around a 2.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards16 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–69.5model over98%tips tracked16

Marvin Mims Jr.'s NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 16 times, typically around a 4.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD3 lines trackedNo line posted
38%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked3

Marvin Mims Jr.'s NFL anytime td prop has been priced 3 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 38%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions6 lines trackedNo line posted
6.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–6.5model over11%tips tracked6

Marvin Mims Jr.'s NFL receptions prop has been priced 6 times, typically around a 6.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marvin Mims Jr. is Over 14.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.6% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos at Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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