Here are our NFL picks for Thursday 17 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards, priced at -108 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Kansas City Chiefs play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Monday 21 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Cam Ward (TEN) Under 12.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tennessee Titans play Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Cam Ward (TEN) Under 12.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 14.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Kansas City Chiefs play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Monday 21 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Davante Adams (LA) Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Los Angeles Rams play New York Giants in the NFL on Tuesday 22 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Davante Adams (LA) Under 44.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Josh Allen (BUF) Under 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-179)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play Detroit Lions in the NFL on Friday 18 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Josh Allen (BUF) Under 0.5 Interceptions Thrown. It was priced at -179 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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