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NFL

Luther Burden III

CHI

Value call

Luther Burden III has one live pick today: under 4.5 rushing yards that pays $180 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
66 in 100
Predicted
3.9 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 66.1% · before adjusting for past results 75.3% · the book's price implies 55.6% · gap +10.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Seattle · Indoor
Mon 2 Nov, 8:20 PM ET
Luther Burden III
under 4.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards Under 4.5 -125 (1.80) · $100→$180
Value call
HIGHWins about 66 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.00 Odds-125
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luther Burden III is Under 4.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 66%, the price says 56%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 4, 6:07AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$14,174 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Burden secured seven of nine targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in the Bears' 34-17 win over the Seahawks on Monday night.
updated Nov 3, 4:55AM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards75.3%66.1%55.6%1.91+19.8%

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AI Analysis

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Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears: Luther Burden III Under 4.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The Seahawks' defense has been tough against the run, which could make things tricky for the Bears' Luther Burden III. He's not the main rushing threat, and with both teams struggling to gain ground, it seems like there won't be many opportunities for him to rack up rushing yards. Also, the Seahawks have held opponents to low rushing totals on their home field, making this a challenging situation for Burden. Betting on Burden to get under 4.5 rushing yards feels like a solid choice. The Bears' quarterback has faced extra rushers often, which could lead to fewer chances for Burden to carry the ball. While there's always a chance he could break a big run, the Seahawks' strong run defense makes this bet a strong favorite by the numbers.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (27 picks) 74.1% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receptions54 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–6.5model over48%tips tracked54

Luther Burden III's NFL receptions prop has been priced 54 times, typically around a 4.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards110 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–58.5model over97%tips tracked110

Luther Burden III's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 110 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Rushing Yards2 lines trackedNo line posted
3.5typical line · rushing yds
line range3.5–4.5tips tracked2

Luther Burden III's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 3.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Luther Burden III average?How many rushing yards does Luther Burden III average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Rushing Yards 4.5 Under -125 ✓ HIT
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Rushing Yards 3.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Receiving Yards 52.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Receiving Yards — — — Pending
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Rush + Rec Yards — — — Pending
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Rush + Rec Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Luther Burden III (CHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 74.1% on tracked Luther Burden III picks. The latest model pick for Luther Burden III is Under 4.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.8% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks on Monday 2 November at Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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