NFL
Luther Burden III
CHI
Luther Burden III has one live pick today: over 24.5 receiving yards that pays $120 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
50.4 receiving yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 89.0% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap +5.7%.
Latest Model PickFree
Chicago Bears
@
Atlanta Falcons
Luther Burden III
over 24.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 24.5
-500 (1.20) · $100→$120
Value call
HIGHWins about 89 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$12.00
Odds-500
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luther Burden III is Over 24.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 89%, the price says 83%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 12:49AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flatToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Is Luther Burden III playing on Sunday? Yes, on the latest team news. Luther Burden III is listed as active with no injury tag. Team news can change, so check again before the start.
UNKNOWN
Burden secured four of six targets for 47 yards and rushed four times for two yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
updated Oct 11, 10:25PM UTC · 3d old
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| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 89.0% | — | 83.3% | 1.20 | +5.7% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears: Luther Burden III Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (Alt) (-500)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Luther Burden III has been showing some solid form lately, and he has a good chance to shine against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are tough against tight ends, but Burden is not just any tight end. With their quarterback facing extra rushers often this season, Burden could find openings to rack up receiving yards, especially if the Falcons focus on covering other threats.
Betting on Burden to go over 24.5 receiving yards feels like a smart move. The odds suggest he's a strong favorite to hit that mark. The only risk here is that the Falcons' defense has been tough overall, but Burden's recent play gives him a real chance to break through.
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Luther Burden III's lines for Sun 18 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5
Luther Burden III's receiving yards (alt) line is 24.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5
Luther Burden III's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 19.5
Luther Burden III's receiving yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Receptions (Alt) 4.5
+125 best over price · 11 books
Luther Burden III's receptions (alt) line is 4.5, best over price +125 across 11 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5
Luther Burden III's receiving yards (alt) line is 29.5.
Receptions 3.5
-172 best over price · 1 book
Luther Burden III's receptions line is 3.5, best over price -172 across 1 book.
Receptions (Alt) 5.5
+125 best over price · 11 books
Luther Burden III's receptions (alt) line is 5.5, best over price +125 across 11 books.
Receiving Yards 49.5
-114 best over price · 5 books
Luther Burden III's receiving yards line is 49.5, best over price -114 across 5 books.
Betting angles
2 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · Atlanta FalconsO 24.5 -500 24.5posted line · receiving yds
Luther Burden III has a live NFL receiving yards market for Atlanta Falcons: over 24.5 receiving yds priced at -500.
ReceptionsNext game · Atlanta FalconsO 4.5 +132 4.5posted line · receptions
Luther Burden III has a live NFL receptions market for Atlanta Falcons: over 4.5 receptions priced at +132.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 11 Oct 26 |
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers |
Receptions |
4.5 |
Under |
-104 |
✓ HIT |
| 11 Oct 26 |
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
24.5 |
Over |
-455 |
✓ HIT |
| 11 Oct 26 |
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
14.5 |
Over |
-1250 |
✓ HIT |
| 11 Oct 26 |
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 11 Oct 26 |
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 11 Oct 26 |
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Luther Burden III (CHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luther Burden III is Over 24.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.7% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons on Sunday 18 October at Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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